***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 1.4 4.4 0.0 49.7 51.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.1 4.0 0.0 50.0 51.0 0.5 2.1 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.2 4.0 0.0 50.1 51.5 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.0 -1.0 1.8 -0.2 47.4 50.5 -2.5 -0.7 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.4 2.1 -0.2 47.6 50.4 0.1 1.6 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 1.6 0.9 0.4 -0.1 48.4 51.4 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 2.8 2.1 4.0 0.0 50.2 51.2 0.5 2.1 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -4.8 -2.9 1.1 0.0 50.0 51.9 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 0.8 2.4 2.8 -0.1 48.5 51.0 1.0 2.5 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 0.2 1.8 1.7 -0.1 48.8 51.2 0.5 1.9 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 2.1 1.5 1.9 -0.1 49.1 51.5 0.1 1.5 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 1.4 0.9 1.6 0.1 50.9 52.5 -0.5 0.9 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 1.7 1.0 1.0 -0.1 49.0 51.3 -0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 3.4 2.7 2.7 -0.1 48.5 50.5 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.7 2.4 0.0 50.4 52.9 0.4 1.7 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 2.8 2.1 1.3 -0.1 48.6 51.2 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.0 3.9 0.0 49.5 50.4 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -1.1 0.2 1.1 -0.2 47.8 50.3 -0.8 0.4 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.3 4.0 0.0 50.2 51.3 0.7 2.2 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -4.2 -2.5 -0.2 -0.4 46.0 48.9 -3.8 -2.1 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 0.4 2.2 3.6 -0.1 48.8 50.9 0.7 2.3 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 2.2 1.6 3.8 0.0 49.4 50.3 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.1 3.8 0.0 50.2 51.5 0.7 2.1 3.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.7 2.6 -0.1 49.2 51.2 0.5 1.8 3.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 2.9 2.2 2.8 -0.1 48.5 50.7 1.0 2.3 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.0 50.2 51.9 0.3 1.4 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 0.5 2.9 3.6 0.0 49.5 51.0 0.9 2.9 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 1.2 0.5 1.9 -0.1 48.3 51.5 -0.7 0.6 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -2.0 -0.2 0.6 -0.3 46.7 49.5 -1.6 0.2 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.5 4.2 0.0 50.2 51.3 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------