***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 2.0 2.9 0.4 55.2 53.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 1.8 1.4 2.3 0.2 52.8 51.9 -0.7 1.1 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 0.9 3.4 2.5 0.4 55.1 53.7 1.2 2.9 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -4.8 -1.6 0.5 0.5 56.0 54.2 -4.3 -2.3 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -1.0 1.2 0.7 0.5 55.2 53.7 -0.8 0.7 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -1.9 0.5 -0.7 0.6 56.6 55.2 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -0.9 1.4 2.3 0.2 52.2 51.6 -0.5 1.2 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -3.5 -3.8 -0.3 0.4 54.7 53.9 -6.1 -4.3 -2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 -0.4 1.8 1.3 0.4 54.2 53.2 -0.2 1.4 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -1.3 0.8 0.2 0.3 53.7 53.0 -1.0 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 -1.4 0.9 0.6 0.6 56.8 54.7 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 -2.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 56.0 54.5 -1.9 -0.5 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -1.6 0.7 -0.1 0.5 55.8 54.3 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 -0.5 1.2 1.0 0.0 49.9 50.4 -0.2 1.2 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 -0.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 57.9 55.8 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -0.6 1.6 0.1 0.6 56.7 54.8 -0.4 1.0 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 -0.9 1.0 2.1 0.1 50.7 50.4 -0.7 0.9 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -2.8 -1.2 -0.5 0.1 51.0 51.3 -2.6 -1.3 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 1.7 1.4 2.4 0.3 53.4 52.3 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -6.5 -4.0 -1.6 0.1 51.4 52.4 -6.1 -4.2 -2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -0.8 1.6 2.2 0.4 55.0 53.7 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 1.1 0.6 2.1 0.1 50.8 50.1 -1.1 0.5 2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 -1.0 1.0 2.2 0.2 53.2 52.2 -0.8 0.8 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 -1.4 0.4 0.9 0.2 52.0 51.8 -1.1 0.2 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 -0.5 1.8 1.4 0.4 55.6 53.8 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 -1.3 0.9 0.0 0.5 56.0 54.6 -1.0 0.4 1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 -0.8 2.0 2.1 0.4 55.0 53.6 -0.5 1.5 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 -2.1 0.2 0.7 0.5 56.5 54.9 -1.8 -0.4 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -3.9 -1.5 -0.9 0.1 51.0 51.5 -3.5 -1.6 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 -0.5 1.9 2.5 0.3 53.8 52.8 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------