***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 3.2 5.2 0.7 61.4 59.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.9 4.5 0.3 55.4 54.7 1.4 2.5 3.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.2 4.8 0.6 60.5 59.0 3.6 4.6 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -0.1 0.4 2.9 0.9 65.0 63.1 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 2.4 2.9 3.3 0.9 64.2 62.4 1.2 2.1 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 2.5 2.8 2.1 1.5 76.1 72.5 0.5 1.4 2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.9 4.5 0.3 55.8 55.1 1.5 2.5 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 -1.4 -1.4 2.3 1.1 68.0 65.4 -3.4 -2.4 -1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 3.2 3.6 3.8 0.8 63.3 61.5 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 2.7 3.2 2.7 0.9 64.5 62.5 1.5 2.4 3.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 2.9 3.0 3.1 1.1 67.6 65.2 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 2.2 2.3 2.9 1.3 70.6 67.7 0.3 1.2 2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 2.6 2.8 2.6 1.3 72.4 69.0 0.7 1.6 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 3.4 3.4 3.3 0.3 54.9 54.4 2.3 3.2 3.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 3.4 3.5 3.7 1.1 69.3 66.9 1.5 2.4 3.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 3.7 3.9 2.8 1.2 70.7 67.8 1.8 2.7 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.4 2.6 4.2 0.1 51.4 51.4 1.6 2.5 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 1.0 1.3 2.1 0.7 62.1 60.3 0.0 0.8 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 3.0 3.0 4.5 0.4 56.6 55.6 1.6 2.6 3.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -0.9 1.0 0.9 64.7 62.2 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 3.0 3.3 4.6 0.7 61.8 60.2 1.7 2.6 3.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 2.4 2.1 4.2 0.1 50.9 50.9 1.1 2.1 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 2.8 2.9 4.4 0.4 58.0 56.7 1.6 2.5 3.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 2.3 2.5 3.4 0.6 60.0 58.7 1.3 2.1 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 3.2 3.5 3.9 0.8 63.1 61.2 2.0 2.9 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 3.0 3.3 2.9 1.6 75.6 71.6 1.0 1.9 2.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.9 4.6 0.7 62.6 60.6 1.9 3.0 4.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 2.1 2.0 3.2 1.0 67.5 65.4 0.2 1.1 2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 0.9 1.4 1.6 0.8 62.5 60.4 -0.6 0.5 1.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.4 4.8 0.4 57.7 56.6 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------