***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 13.0 13.5 -0.5 45.5 46.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 14.5 13.3 13.0 -0.9 41.1 41.8 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 15.4 14.6 13.8 -0.4 46.3 46.7 13.0 15.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 9.2 8.7 11.6 0.0 50.0 50.2 6.6 8.7 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 15.2 15.2 13.1 0.3 52.7 52.8 13.0 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 16.6 16.4 13.3 2.0 65.8 65.2 12.6 14.6 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 14.2 13.0 12.9 -0.8 41.4 42.1 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 7.7 8.0 12.4 0.6 55.4 55.4 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 15.5 15.3 13.9 0.2 51.7 51.8 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 92 8 100 15.1 15.1 13.0 0.3 52.8 52.8 12.8 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 15.5 15.9 13.6 0.8 56.9 56.7 13.1 15.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 15.4 16.1 13.4 1.2 60.0 59.7 12.8 14.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 17.3 17.1 14.2 2.0 66.3 65.6 13.2 15.2 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 15.5 14.3 13.2 -0.7 43.8 44.2 12.9 15.1 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 14.0 13.9 12.9 0.2 51.8 51.7 12.2 13.7 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 16.3 17.3 13.9 1.5 62.2 61.7 13.9 15.9 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 13.8 12.0 12.3 -1.3 36.5 37.8 11.7 13.3 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 14.2 13.9 12.5 0.1 50.7 50.8 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 14.8 13.6 13.3 -0.8 42.5 43.1 12.5 14.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 95 5 100 12.4 12.5 10.8 0.3 52.6 52.6 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 15.3 14.8 13.9 -0.2 48.2 48.5 13.0 15.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 14.6 12.6 12.3 -1.4 35.6 36.9 12.3 14.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 14.8 13.8 13.6 -0.6 44.5 45.0 12.6 14.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 15.6 15.0 13.4 -0.3 47.8 48.1 13.2 15.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 14.3 13.5 12.5 -0.4 46.0 46.4 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 16.9 16.6 13.2 1.8 66.0 65.5 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 15.1 14.3 13.0 -0.4 45.6 46.0 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 14.6 14.7 12.7 0.5 54.3 54.1 12.5 14.2 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 11.5 11.5 12.0 0.2 51.9 51.9 9.0 11.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 14.4 13.5 13.4 -0.6 43.5 44.1 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------