***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 11.4 12.2 0.1 50.6 50.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 9.7 11.5 11.9 -0.2 48.2 48.9 10.0 11.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 10.2 12.6 12.3 0.0 50.0 50.4 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.3 10.8 0.4 54.1 53.7 4.1 5.9 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.7 11.2 0.3 53.1 53.0 10.5 12.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.5 10.5 0.8 57.1 55.6 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.3 11.3 11.8 -0.1 48.6 49.3 9.7 11.5 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.7 10.2 0.3 52.9 52.7 2.7 4.4 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.5 13.0 11.6 0.2 51.7 51.9 10.8 12.8 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 10.0 12.4 10.8 0.1 51.3 51.7 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.2 11.1 0.5 55.0 54.4 10.6 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.9 11.0 0.6 55.9 54.9 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.3 10.8 0.7 57.1 55.7 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 10.5 12.6 11.3 -0.4 45.9 47.3 11.1 13.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.0 11.2 0.7 57.1 56.1 9.8 11.3 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.7 11.0 0.7 56.3 55.2 10.9 13.0 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 9.3 10.9 11.5 -0.3 46.4 47.5 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 8.9 11.0 10.2 -0.2 47.9 49.0 9.4 11.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 9.8 11.9 12.1 -0.2 48.2 48.9 10.3 12.1 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 9.1 8.3 -0.2 47.9 48.8 7.3 9.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.2 12.6 12.0 0.1 51.0 51.3 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.7 11.4 11.6 -0.4 45.9 47.0 10.2 11.8 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 9.9 12.0 12.2 -0.2 48.0 48.7 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 10.6 12.9 11.4 -0.2 48.0 49.0 11.1 13.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 9.5 11.7 11.0 0.1 51.5 51.7 9.8 11.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.1 10.6 0.8 58.4 56.8 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 9.8 12.2 11.6 0.1 50.6 51.0 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.7 11.2 0.6 55.8 54.9 9.8 11.2 12.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.2 8.2 9.3 -0.3 46.7 48.1 6.6 8.6 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 9.6 11.6 12.1 -0.1 49.2 49.7 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------