***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 10.1 10.3 -0.3 46.5 48.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.1 9.6 10.1 -0.3 46.7 47.4 7.9 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 8.2 10.8 10.4 -0.2 47.0 48.5 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.6 5.4 8.7 -0.1 49.2 51.4 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 8.5 11.0 9.1 -0.2 47.4 50.1 9.1 11.3 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 8.2 10.5 8.1 -0.3 46.8 49.6 8.8 10.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 7.0 9.4 9.9 -0.3 46.1 47.0 7.8 9.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.3 8.3 -0.4 45.8 48.6 2.1 3.8 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 8.8 11.3 9.7 -0.3 46.5 49.0 9.5 11.7 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 8.4 10.5 8.9 -0.4 45.5 48.2 9.0 11.0 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 8.8 11.3 9.0 -0.2 47.9 50.5 9.4 11.5 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 8.7 11.1 8.9 -0.2 47.3 50.1 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.9 11.0 8.5 -0.3 46.5 49.4 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.4 11.0 9.7 -0.5 44.8 46.5 9.2 11.8 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 7.1 9.3 9.0 0.2 52.8 54.1 7.5 9.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 9.3 11.7 8.8 -0.2 47.8 50.5 9.8 12.0 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 6.8 9.0 9.7 -0.4 45.3 46.1 7.5 9.6 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.7 9.4 8.5 -0.7 43.1 46.0 8.2 10.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 7.4 10.1 10.3 -0.2 47.1 47.8 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.5 7.2 6.6 -0.8 41.7 44.8 6.1 8.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 8.3 10.9 10.1 -0.3 46.8 49.0 9.1 11.3 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 7.2 9.6 9.9 -0.3 45.7 46.2 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 7.6 10.1 10.5 -0.2 47.1 47.9 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 9.1 11.3 9.7 -0.5 44.9 47.1 9.7 12.0 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 7.5 9.9 9.0 -0.2 47.0 48.9 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 8.4 10.2 8.3 -0.4 46.0 49.2 8.9 10.6 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 8.1 10.6 9.6 -0.3 46.1 47.8 8.9 11.1 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 7.4 9.6 9.0 0.0 50.5 52.6 7.9 9.5 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.0 6.8 7.7 -0.8 42.0 44.9 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 7.2 9.7 10.2 -0.3 46.9 47.8 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------