***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 8.7 8.4 0.3 53.8 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.6 8.1 0.2 52.0 50.9 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.9 8.4 0.3 52.7 52.0 7.3 9.5 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.8 3.9 6.5 0.2 52.6 52.2 1.2 3.6 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.8 9.7 6.9 0.3 52.8 52.3 7.2 9.4 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.1 6.2 0.5 54.4 54.0 6.5 8.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.6 8.0 0.2 52.9 51.7 6.3 8.2 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 3.3 2.7 6.2 0.2 52.3 52.7 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.5 10.6 7.6 0.3 52.9 52.5 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.6 6.8 0.2 52.4 52.4 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.8 10.1 6.9 0.3 53.5 53.0 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.8 9.9 6.8 0.4 53.5 53.5 7.2 9.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.9 10.3 6.6 0.5 54.7 54.2 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.0 10.0 7.6 0.0 49.9 50.3 7.5 10.0 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.2 6.7 0.3 53.5 53.0 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.4 10.6 6.7 0.4 53.9 53.3 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.0 7.8 0.1 51.5 50.4 5.8 7.8 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.5 7.9 6.5 0.2 51.4 51.7 5.8 7.7 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.1 8.8 8.2 0.1 51.6 50.7 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.4 4.8 0.1 51.0 51.9 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.1 10.1 8.0 0.3 53.0 52.5 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.8 8.4 7.9 0.0 50.1 49.3 6.2 8.4 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 6.1 8.7 8.3 0.1 51.1 50.7 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.5 10.4 7.6 0.2 51.5 51.5 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.1 7.0 0.3 53.5 52.7 6.8 8.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.5 9.5 6.6 0.5 55.2 54.9 7.0 9.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.1 7.7 0.4 53.9 52.9 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.8 6.7 0.3 52.7 52.3 6.1 8.4 10.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.2 5.8 0.1 51.2 51.8 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.7 8.3 0.2 52.5 51.5 6.4 8.4 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------