***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 10.4 11.1 -0.1 48.6 49.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 9.4 10.7 10.8 -0.3 45.3 46.8 9.8 11.1 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 10.5 12.0 11.2 -0.1 48.5 49.4 10.7 12.1 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.1 9.4 0.1 52.2 52.5 4.7 5.9 7.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 10.4 12.2 10.1 0.2 52.5 52.6 10.7 12.0 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.2 9.5 0.7 60.0 58.3 10.1 11.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 9.2 10.6 10.7 -0.3 45.7 47.2 9.6 10.9 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.7 9.3 0.2 52.9 52.6 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 10.8 12.6 10.7 0.1 51.3 51.5 11.1 12.5 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.9 9.9 0.1 51.1 51.3 10.5 11.8 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.7 10.2 0.4 55.3 54.7 10.8 12.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.5 10.0 0.5 56.8 55.7 10.7 12.0 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.8 13.0 10.0 0.7 60.0 58.2 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 10.5 12.0 10.4 -0.4 44.0 45.7 11.0 12.5 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.8 9.9 0.3 55.4 54.9 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.4 10.1 0.6 58.1 56.8 11.3 12.7 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 8.9 9.9 10.3 -0.5 42.1 44.5 9.3 10.5 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 9.1 10.6 9.4 -0.2 47.6 48.4 9.5 10.7 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 9.7 11.1 11.0 -0.3 45.8 47.2 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.5 8.9 7.6 -0.1 47.9 48.4 7.7 9.0 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 10.5 12.1 11.0 0.0 49.7 50.3 10.8 12.1 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 9.4 10.4 10.4 -0.5 41.2 43.7 9.8 11.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 9.8 11.1 11.1 -0.2 46.4 47.6 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.9 12.4 10.5 -0.2 47.1 48.1 11.2 12.6 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 9.6 11.1 9.9 -0.1 49.2 50.0 9.9 11.1 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.4 9.7 0.7 60.4 58.7 10.4 11.7 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 10.3 11.8 10.5 -0.1 48.6 49.5 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.2 9.9 0.3 54.9 54.6 9.8 10.9 11.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.8 8.2 8.7 -0.2 47.2 47.9 7.1 8.4 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 9.4 10.9 11.0 -0.2 46.9 48.1 9.8 11.1 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------