***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 11.7 16.3 147.0 76.8 71.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 10.2 12.0 15.1 149.1 77.3 71.0 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 10.4 11.8 14.7 132.0 73.4 68.6 2.2 4.8 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 10.1 11.9 17.5 145.1 76.4 71.2 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 6.1 9.9 14.0 112.2 68.7 64.2 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 7.1 8.3 16.5 142.7 76.0 71.4 2.2 3.8 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 10.2 12.4 16.0 157.6 78.9 72.9 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 12.0 12.6 15.0 119.3 69.9 65.7 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 6.2 8.6 13.3 106.7 67.0 62.3 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 6.3 9.4 13.9 109.1 67.2 63.1 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 5.3 8.4 13.4 113.4 69.1 64.6 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 9.5 10.7 14.6 126.3 72.2 67.7 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 9.7 11.1 16.4 136.7 74.7 70.6 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 16.0 16.7 15.8 122.9 70.9 66.6 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 8.2 13.3 22.9 217.3 86.9 80.8 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 46 54 100 7.1 8.2 14.8 127.2 72.6 68.1 1.9 3.8 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 12.1 14.1 15.3 150.5 77.6 71.5 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 11.7 11.9 15.9 119.1 69.7 66.1 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 11.5 13.4 14.5 140.1 75.4 69.5 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 13.8 15.7 23.3 147.6 76.2 72.6 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 9.2 9.5 13.9 116.6 69.7 64.7 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 12.7 14.3 14.7 136.1 74.5 68.7 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 11.7 12.6 14.2 130.1 73.0 67.7 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 12.6 12.9 14.8 119.0 69.7 65.7 3.3 6.7 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 10.7 12.4 18.5 148.7 77.2 72.5 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 10.0 12.3 20.8 163.3 79.7 74.7 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 10.7 12.9 18.2 155.2 78.4 73.3 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 8.2 10.5 18.1 166.2 79.5 74.6 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 17.7 17.7 17.0 121.0 70.0 66.1 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 10.5 12.5 15.6 152.0 77.8 71.9 2.6 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------