***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 20.6 17.9 172.3 81.5 71.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 18.0 23.9 17.5 164.5 80.3 69.8 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 17.1 25.5 19.4 187.1 83.7 73.5 3.8 7.8 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 21.3 35.4 22.2 196.3 84.8 72.7 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 15.3 24.1 21.7 187.5 83.6 73.3 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 12.6 18.9 24.6 193.6 84.6 71.7 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 15.6 20.5 17.2 158.6 79.2 69.0 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 25.7 39.3 22.1 173.0 81.5 70.2 4.7 11.0 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 13.8 20.8 21.5 182.2 83.0 72.8 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 14.2 21.1 22.3 175.5 82.0 71.5 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.4 21.0 20.5 180.1 82.6 71.0 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 14.5 22.7 20.3 186.3 83.6 71.1 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 16.8 26.1 22.3 191.6 84.5 72.4 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 20.1 29.8 23.3 187.8 84.2 74.8 5.4 10.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 16.8 27.2 23.6 203.7 85.7 72.4 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 15.4 23.9 21.3 187.0 83.7 72.0 3.6 7.5 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 16.0 23.0 17.0 160.4 79.5 68.3 3.7 7.8 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 16.5 24.4 24.4 176.4 82.4 73.0 4.0 8.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.6 24.2 18.2 175.0 82.1 71.5 3.1 7.0 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 20.8 27.8 27.8 158.3 79.1 70.2 5.0 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 14.9 22.0 20.0 185.1 83.4 72.7 3.7 7.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 15.8 22.2 17.5 162.7 80.1 68.0 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 17.3 27.5 19.8 189.7 84.4 73.9 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 16.3 25.0 22.7 187.0 84.0 74.0 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 18.3 28.1 21.7 191.3 84.3 74.3 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 16.0 25.8 22.2 196.7 85.0 71.5 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 15.1 20.2 19.7 175.5 82.0 71.7 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 13.8 22.7 22.5 196.2 84.8 71.6 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 24.5 35.3 25.8 171.5 81.5 73.0 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 15.7 21.2 17.9 170.5 81.3 71.0 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------