***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 19.5 17.8 148.8 77.3 62.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.8 15.0 15.6 122.2 70.8 59.7 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 21.2 25.5 17.4 145.1 76.5 63.9 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 22.0 24.9 17.9 143.3 76.1 60.7 6.2 11.4 18.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 22.5 26.2 17.3 149.9 77.5 62.4 5.4 10.5 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 22.3 25.7 16.7 144.1 76.3 62.5 5.4 10.7 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.5 14.4 16.0 126.3 71.9 59.3 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 28.6 32.1 17.1 138.7 75.0 62.4 7.4 14.4 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 21.4 25.9 17.6 154.4 78.4 63.7 5.9 10.9 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 24.4 29.7 17.8 148.4 77.2 64.2 5.5 11.4 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 24.6 28.6 15.7 146.8 76.8 62.1 6.8 12.5 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 25.4 28.6 14.9 138.5 75.0 60.8 6.8 13.0 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 25.0 27.7 15.8 141.7 75.8 62.2 5.6 11.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 25.4 30.1 20.3 144.8 76.4 65.0 7.4 13.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 23.9 17.6 136.7 74.6 59.1 4.4 9.4 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 23.5 26.8 15.6 144.9 76.4 61.4 6.0 11.5 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.1 12.8 14.7 111.9 67.9 55.2 4.3 7.7 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 27.0 32.1 19.9 147.1 76.9 65.0 6.9 13.4 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 17.2 18.5 16.1 126.8 72.0 61.3 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 28.6 30.6 23.4 134.0 73.9 62.6 6.7 13.6 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 20.7 25.7 17.7 152.5 78.1 63.0 5.0 9.9 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.2 14.2 15.0 109.1 66.7 55.3 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 17.6 19.4 17.4 137.5 74.8 63.9 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 21.9 26.8 19.1 149.1 77.4 64.8 5.3 10.6 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 15.6 18.4 19.2 146.8 76.8 61.8 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 22.6 24.9 15.9 141.2 75.7 62.4 4.7 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 17.3 20.6 19.0 146.9 76.9 62.3 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 21.1 24.7 17.1 141.9 75.8 60.2 4.4 9.5 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 34.0 37.9 21.4 138.3 74.9 63.7 9.9 17.9 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 15.2 16.9 16.3 131.3 73.2 61.8 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------