***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 5.8 10.1 93.7 61.7 49.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.0 9.3 91.5 60.7 48.1 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.6 10.2 10.3 92.3 61.4 48.6 3.1 6.7 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.1 13.4 12.2 95.7 62.0 51.3 4.3 8.8 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.3 11.6 91.1 61.2 50.1 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.9 12.0 85.5 58.6 49.4 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.4 9.2 9.2 91.1 60.8 48.6 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.1 17.2 12.2 80.2 56.5 46.1 7.1 13.9 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.9 11.6 90.1 61.1 49.3 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.9 12.0 84.1 58.1 47.1 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.3 10.8 82.9 57.9 47.2 3.5 7.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.4 12.0 11.0 80.4 57.0 46.5 4.2 9.2 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.6 11.6 84.1 58.6 49.1 4.3 9.2 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.2 16.1 12.6 93.0 60.6 47.7 5.8 11.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.5 14.8 13.1 98.8 63.1 51.0 3.7 8.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.3 11.1 84.3 58.3 48.5 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.1 8.9 89.3 59.5 46.8 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.5 13.3 86.9 58.8 47.5 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.7 9.7 92.3 60.9 48.0 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 13.4 16.0 84.9 58.1 47.8 4.6 9.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.1 10.0 10.9 92.1 61.6 49.2 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.9 11.4 9.5 90.3 59.6 47.1 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.7 10.4 92.4 61.0 47.6 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.6 12.1 90.8 60.3 47.7 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.1 10.3 11.6 97.4 63.1 51.6 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.9 15.3 12.3 92.4 62.0 50.5 4.6 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.0 11.0 97.1 62.9 51.2 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.9 12.5 12.3 92.7 61.1 50.3 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.8 14.4 87.7 58.9 47.8 6.4 13.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.5 9.6 92.5 61.2 48.7 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------