***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 61.9 62.1 140.4 78.4 71.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 54.2 63.5 57.5 131.6 75.3 67.3 24.7 37.0 51.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 64.9 73.5 61.7 138.4 78.2 71.3 33.5 45.5 59.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 74.0 84.9 69.8 143.6 80.1 72.4 37.5 50.8 65.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 64.1 68.1 64.6 133.6 75.9 68.7 34.7 45.8 58.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 62.8 69.6 69.9 139.9 78.6 71.8 31.8 42.9 55.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 50.6 60.9 58.4 133.5 76.0 68.0 20.3 32.4 47.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 96.1 100.0 66.4 125.4 72.5 66.2 50.8 69.1 89.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 59.1 62.3 64.0 131.9 75.0 68.0 32.1 42.5 54.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 65.9 68.7 66.0 127.5 73.4 66.9 35.7 47.7 60.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 65.4 68.7 60.3 128.7 73.8 66.7 32.9 45.5 59.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 71.7 76.2 60.7 129.5 74.2 67.5 36.4 50.2 66.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 73.8 80.1 66.2 136.0 77.0 70.7 35.8 49.7 65.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 83.0 92.2 72.1 136.2 78.2 71.2 51.2 64.0 78.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 71.2 95.8 77.2 160.0 84.7 77.2 28.6 43.1 61.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 66.5 72.1 62.8 133.7 76.1 69.1 27.9 41.5 57.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 55.7 61.0 55.9 127.4 73.1 64.7 24.0 36.6 52.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 73.1 77.8 73.5 131.2 75.6 69.2 42.1 54.4 67.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 60.4 69.5 58.5 133.0 76.0 68.3 28.9 41.9 56.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 85.0 90.2 90.6 129.8 74.8 69.0 47.9 62.6 79.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 59.8 64.3 62.5 135.3 76.3 69.2 32.4 42.9 54.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 61.2 63.6 56.8 123.7 71.6 64.1 28.8 41.9 57.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 61.3 68.6 61.9 136.5 77.6 70.3 31.8 43.2 56.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 71.5 79.5 68.8 135.4 77.4 70.4 37.4 50.7 65.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 58.3 69.3 71.0 145.5 80.5 73.5 28.1 39.4 52.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 72.1 83.0 71.2 146.5 80.3 73.7 34.9 48.2 63.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 55.7 68.4 67.9 143.8 79.8 73.0 24.7 36.6 50.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 63.6 75.6 70.0 146.3 80.6 72.9 29.1 41.5 56.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 104.7 110.0 78.6 128.7 74.4 68.5 63.7 80.2 98.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 54.4 64.6 59.4 136.3 77.4 70.0 24.6 36.3 50.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------