***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.6 12.9 12.7 6.3 97.9 97.1 2.5 4.3 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 7.0 12.2 12.2 6.2 98.3 97.4 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 9.1 13.9 12.6 6.1 98.1 97.4 4.7 6.3 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 4.5 8.5 8.9 5.2 96.4 95.5 -0.3 1.5 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 6.3 11.1 11.0 6.1 98.1 97.4 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 5.4 9.5 7.8 5.5 97.1 96.5 0.9 2.5 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 6.8 11.9 12.5 6.5 98.2 97.4 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 2.9 6.8 7.7 4.9 96.2 95.1 -1.9 -0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 7.2 12.1 10.5 5.8 98.1 97.4 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 6.7 10.6 8.6 5.2 97.0 95.9 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 6.3 10.9 10.0 5.7 97.9 97.2 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 5.6 9.9 9.0 5.5 97.1 96.2 1.0 2.7 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 5.6 9.9 8.8 5.5 97.4 96.4 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 7.3 11.7 10.2 5.6 98.1 97.1 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 6.7 10.8 9.9 4.9 96.9 96.1 2.2 3.8 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 7.0 11.3 9.1 5.5 97.3 96.5 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 6.9 12.1 12.0 6.2 98.3 97.5 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 4.9 8.5 8.2 5.2 97.1 96.1 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 6.9 12.2 12.2 6.2 98.5 97.7 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 2.7 6.4 7.1 5.2 96.3 95.0 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 7.1 12.3 11.9 6.0 98.1 97.3 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 6.2 11.3 12.0 6.0 98.4 97.7 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 6.8 11.9 12.0 6.1 98.7 98.1 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 6.3 10.6 10.2 5.6 97.9 96.9 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.3 11.9 12.1 6.2 97.8 97.1 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 5.7 9.4 8.6 5.5 96.9 95.9 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 7.9 13.5 12.7 6.6 97.8 97.0 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 5.3 8.9 9.0 5.1 96.2 95.3 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 5.7 10.3 7.5 5.2 97.2 96.0 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.5 12.9 12.6 6.3 98.2 97.4 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------