***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 5.5 5.5 7.2 1.5 69.4 64.6 2.1 3.7 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 4.7 4.6 6.7 1.4 68.6 64.2 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 6.9 6.9 7.2 1.5 69.9 65.3 3.7 5.2 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 1.4 1.1 4.2 1.1 65.3 62.1 -1.9 -0.3 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 4.4 4.0 5.0 1.0 64.1 61.1 1.1 2.7 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 3.9 3.6 2.8 1.2 67.0 63.5 0.3 1.9 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 4.7 4.6 6.7 1.4 67.9 63.5 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -0.4 -0.6 3.0 1.1 65.6 62.4 -4.0 -2.3 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 5.2 4.8 5.0 1.1 65.2 62.1 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 4.9 4.6 3.7 1.1 65.1 62.0 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 4.6 4.1 4.2 1.0 64.0 61.0 1.2 2.8 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 2.4 3.1 3.6 1.0 63.9 60.6 0.1 1.7 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 2.9 3.2 3.2 0.8 61.1 58.7 0.6 2.2 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 5.2 5.1 5.0 1.2 66.7 62.9 2.6 3.9 5.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 4.9 4.8 5.5 1.3 69.0 65.0 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.2 4.7 3.6 0.8 61.9 59.4 1.9 3.5 5.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 4.6 4.4 6.4 1.3 66.5 63.0 1.6 3.0 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 2.9 2.6 3.2 1.1 64.5 61.3 0.3 1.5 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 4.9 4.9 6.7 1.5 70.1 65.5 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 0.7 0.5 2.2 1.2 66.0 62.4 -3.1 -1.2 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 4.9 4.6 6.2 1.2 66.1 62.6 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 4.2 4.2 6.6 1.4 69.2 65.0 1.4 2.7 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 4.9 5.0 6.7 1.6 71.8 66.9 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 4.3 4.0 4.8 1.1 65.9 62.4 1.4 2.7 4.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 5.3 5.1 6.3 1.4 68.0 63.8 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 4.4 3.9 3.2 1.0 63.7 60.5 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 5.5 5.2 6.7 1.4 67.1 62.6 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 3.5 3.0 4.3 1.0 64.5 61.6 0.0 1.6 3.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 2.8 2.6 2.7 1.2 66.5 63.0 -0.6 1.0 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 5.2 5.2 7.0 1.6 70.2 65.4 1.8 3.4 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------