***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 18.0 21.7 19.6 5.3 94.8 93.4 12.8 14.7 16.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 17.0 20.3 19.8 5.3 95.0 93.8 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 18.5 22.1 20.1 5.3 94.3 92.9 13.0 15.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 12.4 16.0 15.9 4.7 93.4 90.5 6.6 8.7 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 18.2 21.4 18.1 5.0 93.4 91.6 13.0 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 18.0 21.6 17.3 5.5 93.9 92.4 12.6 14.6 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 16.8 20.2 19.8 5.4 95.3 94.1 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 10.2 12.5 16.8 4.6 91.0 89.0 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 18.6 22.0 19.0 5.0 94.0 92.4 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 18.2 21.0 17.8 4.8 91.4 89.6 12.8 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 18.7 22.1 18.8 5.1 93.4 91.9 13.1 15.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 18.6 22.0 17.6 5.0 93.4 91.6 12.8 14.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 18.8 22.3 18.8 5.4 93.7 92.2 13.2 15.2 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 19.0 22.3 19.5 5.0 92.6 90.7 12.9 15.1 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 16.3 20.0 18.0 5.1 96.8 94.9 12.2 13.7 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 19.4 23.0 18.4 5.4 94.1 92.6 13.9 15.9 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 16.1 19.2 19.3 5.2 94.9 93.6 11.7 13.3 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 17.2 19.8 17.3 4.6 90.1 88.0 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 17.5 21.0 19.9 5.2 94.8 93.4 12.5 14.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 15.4 17.4 15.4 4.1 88.0 85.6 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 18.3 21.6 19.7 5.0 93.7 92.2 13.0 15.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 17.1 20.2 19.2 4.8 94.0 92.5 12.3 14.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 17.6 21.2 20.1 5.3 94.8 93.4 12.6 14.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 18.9 22.0 19.3 4.9 92.2 90.3 13.2 15.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 17.0 19.9 18.3 4.9 93.3 91.6 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 18.0 21.7 17.1 5.3 95.2 93.6 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 17.9 21.3 19.1 5.2 94.4 93.0 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 17.3 20.8 17.1 5.0 94.7 92.4 12.5 14.2 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 14.9 17.3 16.6 4.3 88.8 86.7 9.0 11.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 17.1 20.5 19.9 5.3 95.0 93.7 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------