***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 14.3 14.9 14.9 2.2 74.5 69.5 10.2 12.1 13.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 13.5 14.3 15.1 2.4 75.9 70.4 10.0 11.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 14.7 15.4 15.4 2.3 74.9 69.6 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 7.9 8.0 11.6 1.7 69.1 65.0 4.1 5.9 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 14.4 14.7 13.3 2.0 71.4 67.0 10.5 12.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 14.1 14.1 12.3 1.9 69.6 65.5 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 13.4 14.3 15.0 2.4 75.6 70.1 9.7 11.5 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.7 12.6 2.0 71.4 66.9 2.7 4.4 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 15.1 15.5 14.2 2.1 72.6 67.9 10.8 12.8 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 14.3 14.6 13.4 2.1 71.1 66.6 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 15.0 15.3 13.7 2.1 71.5 66.9 10.6 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 14.6 15.0 13.1 2.1 72.7 67.9 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 15.0 15.2 13.6 2.1 71.9 67.4 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.6 14.8 2.3 72.6 67.7 11.1 13.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 13.3 13.6 13.1 2.0 74.3 69.6 9.8 11.3 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 15.4 15.8 13.4 2.1 71.8 67.3 10.9 13.0 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.6 14.7 2.3 74.5 69.3 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 13.2 13.6 13.2 2.2 71.3 66.7 9.4 11.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.9 15.3 2.4 75.8 70.3 10.3 12.1 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.9 11.6 2.1 71.2 67.0 7.3 9.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 14.5 15.0 14.7 2.0 72.1 67.5 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 13.7 14.2 14.7 2.2 73.7 68.9 10.2 11.8 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 14.5 15.2 15.5 2.5 76.1 70.4 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 15.3 15.9 14.7 2.3 72.5 67.5 11.1 13.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 13.6 13.8 13.4 1.8 70.7 66.6 9.8 11.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 14.6 15.4 12.8 2.4 76.8 71.5 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 14.3 14.8 14.4 2.1 73.4 68.6 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 12.8 13.0 12.4 1.8 70.8 66.5 9.8 11.2 12.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 10.8 11.1 12.7 2.1 71.0 66.6 6.6 8.6 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 13.6 14.5 15.2 2.4 76.4 70.8 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------