***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 13.5 14.6 13.7 2.2 82.9 77.2 10.4 11.7 13.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 12.7 13.8 13.8 2.2 83.7 77.3 9.8 11.1 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 13.8 14.9 14.1 2.2 82.3 76.5 10.7 12.1 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 7.6 8.4 10.8 2.0 81.3 75.8 4.7 5.9 7.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 13.7 14.5 12.1 2.0 80.0 74.6 10.7 12.0 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 13.2 14.2 11.5 2.3 82.0 76.7 10.1 11.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 12.5 13.6 13.7 2.3 83.9 77.6 9.6 10.9 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 5.7 6.2 11.3 1.9 78.6 73.2 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 14.3 15.1 12.9 2.0 79.7 74.2 11.1 12.5 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 13.4 14.2 12.1 2.0 78.0 72.7 10.5 11.8 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 14.1 14.9 12.4 2.1 79.8 74.5 10.8 12.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 13.8 14.7 11.8 2.1 80.9 75.1 10.7 12.0 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 14.1 15.1 12.2 2.2 81.7 76.4 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 14.3 15.1 13.3 2.0 77.9 72.1 11.0 12.5 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 12.1 13.2 12.1 2.4 86.9 81.2 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 14.7 15.6 12.2 2.2 81.4 76.1 11.3 12.7 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 12.0 13.0 13.4 2.1 83.2 76.5 9.3 10.5 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 12.2 12.8 11.9 1.9 76.6 71.4 9.5 10.7 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 13.0 14.2 13.9 2.2 83.1 76.7 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 10.6 11.2 10.2 1.8 77.3 72.3 7.7 9.0 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 13.8 14.7 13.4 2.0 80.1 74.6 10.8 12.1 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 12.7 13.7 13.3 2.0 81.7 75.0 9.8 11.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 13.1 14.2 14.1 2.2 82.5 75.9 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 14.3 15.1 13.2 2.0 78.1 72.5 11.2 12.6 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 12.7 13.6 12.3 2.0 80.9 75.6 9.9 11.1 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 13.5 14.8 11.6 2.5 86.9 80.7 10.4 11.7 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 13.6 14.6 13.2 2.2 82.4 76.8 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 12.3 13.2 11.5 2.2 83.1 77.4 9.8 10.9 11.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 9.9 10.5 11.3 1.8 75.8 70.9 7.1 8.4 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 12.7 13.8 13.8 2.3 83.8 77.7 9.8 11.1 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------