***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.5 8.5 84.3 60.0 47.9 2.9 5.4 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.4 8.9 10.1 112.5 68.4 56.8 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.9 7.3 8.3 86.9 60.7 48.9 2.2 4.8 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.3 9.3 85.4 60.7 50.1 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.6 5.2 6.2 60.8 50.5 38.7 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 1.9 3.5 4.9 50.8 47.0 36.1 2.2 3.8 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.1 8.7 10.5 114.8 69.1 55.6 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.4 7.9 69.2 53.5 42.5 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.0 6.3 7.2 72.8 55.7 43.0 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.8 7.6 69.2 53.3 41.6 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.2 4.0 5.4 52.9 47.0 35.9 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.7 6.6 64.4 52.5 40.3 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.4 4.4 6.0 56.6 48.2 35.7 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.9 12.1 10.5 93.5 62.2 51.8 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.0 8.5 84.5 60.9 49.5 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 1.9 3.8 5.9 59.4 50.3 37.9 1.9 3.8 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 10.6 12.5 11.8 134.2 74.0 62.8 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.1 9.6 82.1 58.1 47.5 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.1 9.8 108.2 67.1 56.1 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 8.1 10.5 12.9 98.5 64.2 54.2 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.7 6.4 7.8 77.1 57.6 44.2 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 12.5 14.3 12.5 137.0 74.6 64.5 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.7 9.6 103.1 65.4 54.5 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.7 8.6 8.4 80.2 57.3 46.5 3.3 6.7 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.3 6.6 8.2 72.5 55.6 43.4 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.1 7.1 68.8 55.3 42.8 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.8 6.6 8.7 80.7 58.8 46.4 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.9 7.4 76.6 57.6 46.8 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.3 14.4 11.9 97.3 63.1 53.1 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.8 8.6 9.7 105.4 66.5 54.6 2.6 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------