***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 4.3 8.8 7.8 68.0 51.6 37.9 4.4 8.2 13.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.5 11.1 8.4 79.0 57.3 41.7 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.2 7.8 7.4 63.6 49.9 38.1 3.8 7.8 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.7 7.7 7.1 54.9 45.7 35.4 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.7 6.8 53.6 45.1 35.8 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.1 5.8 7.0 57.5 48.1 38.7 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.7 9.8 8.7 82.0 58.0 40.8 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.7 9.0 7.3 52.9 44.9 37.8 4.7 11.0 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.5 5.1 6.4 49.4 43.3 33.4 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.0 5.8 7.2 53.1 44.9 36.4 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.3 5.3 7.2 54.7 44.8 37.8 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.4 5.1 6.5 50.4 43.5 37.2 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.8 6.5 7.2 54.3 46.1 37.8 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.0 9.4 8.6 59.0 48.1 37.5 5.4 10.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 3.5 7.0 7.3 56.8 47.8 35.8 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.4 6.1 6.8 53.3 45.2 37.0 3.6 7.5 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.9 10.7 9.1 82.9 58.4 41.8 3.7 7.8 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.6 6.8 7.9 56.1 45.7 37.4 4.0 8.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.7 8.5 8.0 73.0 54.7 40.5 3.1 7.0 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.5 10.1 11.2 64.0 50.0 42.3 5.0 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.6 6.1 6.7 54.4 45.8 34.8 3.7 7.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.3 10.0 9.2 78.2 56.5 40.9 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.3 8.2 7.7 64.7 50.9 38.2 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.4 6.5 7.5 55.3 45.1 36.2 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.5 7.4 8.6 65.6 50.6 37.6 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.6 7.0 52.6 44.5 36.1 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.3 7.6 8.6 71.9 53.4 38.5 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.1 5.4 6.7 54.9 46.2 36.1 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.2 10.5 9.2 60.5 47.7 39.1 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.5 8.0 74.5 55.0 39.6 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------