***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.2 13.0 11.5 107.5 66.9 48.3 3.7 7.4 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.2 14.2 11.4 114.9 69.4 48.9 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.5 20.4 13.0 119.2 70.1 48.5 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 6.1 17.7 12.0 102.0 64.8 45.9 6.2 11.4 18.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.8 18.7 12.7 109.5 67.1 48.1 5.4 10.5 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.9 17.5 10.8 102.0 64.8 48.6 5.4 10.7 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.0 13.2 11.0 114.6 69.3 48.1 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.1 26.3 14.1 114.5 68.6 48.9 7.4 14.4 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.4 19.1 13.9 115.0 68.7 48.8 5.9 10.9 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.3 22.4 14.8 117.2 69.3 49.4 5.5 11.4 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.0 21.3 12.4 109.9 67.2 48.4 6.8 12.5 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 7.0 22.7 12.2 110.5 67.6 48.2 6.8 13.0 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 5.8 18.6 11.1 100.4 64.0 46.5 5.6 11.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.8 26.2 17.3 126.9 72.1 50.5 7.4 13.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.5 17.6 12.6 105.4 66.3 45.5 4.4 9.4 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 6.1 18.1 10.9 100.5 64.2 46.6 6.0 11.5 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.4 13.2 10.8 113.0 68.9 48.7 4.3 7.7 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 7.3 25.9 16.2 120.8 70.4 50.4 6.9 13.4 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.1 17.0 12.0 115.8 69.5 49.0 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.2 24.8 17.9 111.7 67.7 49.2 6.7 13.6 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.6 18.5 13.0 114.1 68.5 48.0 5.0 9.9 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.3 14.5 11.1 108.5 67.3 48.8 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.3 16.6 13.2 117.6 69.6 48.0 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.6 22.2 15.8 126.3 71.9 50.3 5.3 10.6 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.5 12.6 12.0 101.8 64.8 46.9 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.9 16.9 11.5 100.0 64.6 46.4 4.7 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.2 14.3 11.4 103.0 65.2 47.6 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.8 17.1 11.6 104.5 65.7 46.5 4.4 9.5 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 10.0 32.8 17.0 119.6 70.0 50.5 9.9 17.9 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.1 14.8 11.8 115.9 69.5 48.5 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------