***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.2 12.3 96.4 62.1 46.7 3.3 6.7 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.8 10.4 88.9 60.0 46.2 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.8 12.6 98.0 63.1 48.2 3.1 6.7 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.9 15.5 15.3 107.3 66.5 50.3 4.3 8.8 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.7 12.9 15.4 112.1 67.5 51.4 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.7 16.2 14.2 103.7 65.7 50.3 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.6 9.1 10.3 90.8 60.7 46.2 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.4 24.7 16.7 112.5 67.7 51.6 7.1 13.9 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.6 12.2 15.7 110.8 67.0 51.7 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.8 13.6 16.7 112.3 67.5 52.0 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.8 15.1 15.5 113.6 68.1 51.6 3.5 7.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.8 17.6 15.1 111.0 67.4 51.6 4.2 9.2 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.9 16.1 14.8 103.6 65.3 50.8 4.3 9.2 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.5 16.3 14.7 92.8 60.8 49.6 5.8 11.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.5 16.4 15.3 103.3 66.0 48.2 3.7 8.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.9 13.7 14.5 106.1 65.9 50.0 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.5 8.5 9.5 82.0 57.6 45.4 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 14.3 16.7 106.4 65.5 51.8 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.5 10.8 89.9 60.2 46.7 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 17.8 20.5 107.7 66.1 50.7 4.6 9.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.6 11.4 14.3 106.3 65.7 50.0 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.0 10.4 83.6 58.3 46.1 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.4 11.6 90.0 60.0 47.4 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.7 14.3 15.0 101.2 63.9 50.7 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.7 14.3 102.1 64.4 49.2 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.2 17.9 15.2 107.2 66.5 50.9 4.6 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.0 13.0 98.3 63.0 47.7 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.8 14.8 14.7 105.7 66.2 49.1 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.4 23.4 17.5 104.6 64.9 51.3 6.4 13.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.5 9.5 11.0 92.3 61.2 46.5 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------