***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 25.3 38.6 40.2 89.1 51.9 43.4 25.4 37.0 51.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 25.2 43.1 40.3 97.8 57.2 47.5 24.7 37.0 51.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 32.1 48.2 41.3 91.9 53.6 44.2 33.5 45.5 59.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 37.4 52.3 43.7 87.7 51.5 44.1 37.5 50.8 65.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 32.3 45.3 41.1 85.2 49.4 42.6 34.7 45.8 58.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 30.7 40.3 36.9 80.1 45.9 41.4 31.8 42.9 55.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 40.4 39.8 40.4 99.5 58.6 48.5 20.3 32.4 47.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 46.7 68.7 46.0 87.8 49.7 44.1 50.8 69.1 89.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 30.2 43.0 43.3 88.1 50.9 43.7 32.1 42.5 54.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 33.5 48.2 46.4 88.9 50.6 44.1 35.7 47.7 60.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 30.0 43.8 40.4 84.0 48.0 42.3 32.9 45.5 59.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 34.1 48.6 40.4 84.6 48.1 43.1 36.4 50.2 66.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 35.1 45.3 39.0 79.5 45.0 41.0 35.8 49.7 65.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 70.7 66.5 51.1 92.4 52.9 44.6 51.2 64.0 78.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 27.4 45.8 43.7 88.1 52.7 43.7 28.6 43.1 61.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 27.0 38.2 38.1 80.8 46.3 41.3 27.9 41.5 57.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 43.6 44.8 41.3 100.7 59.2 50.4 24.0 36.6 52.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 40.1 55.8 50.5 91.9 52.1 44.9 42.1 54.4 67.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 28.5 46.8 40.7 95.8 55.9 46.5 28.9 41.9 56.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 47.3 66.8 62.5 95.1 54.1 47.6 47.9 62.6 79.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 31.6 43.8 41.8 88.5 51.6 43.7 32.4 42.9 54.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 49.0 48.8 43.2 99.1 57.8 49.7 28.8 41.9 57.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 31.1 45.9 42.2 92.9 53.9 44.8 31.8 43.2 56.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 36.1 52.3 46.6 91.0 52.1 44.1 37.4 50.7 65.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 28.0 39.1 43.1 85.9 49.6 42.3 28.1 39.4 52.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 34.1 45.5 40.8 82.8 46.7 42.4 34.9 48.2 63.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 43.6 37.6 41.7 88.7 51.5 43.6 24.7 36.6 50.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 28.6 42.4 40.5 86.2 51.0 43.5 29.1 41.5 56.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 62.3 84.5 55.7 95.2 54.1 46.9 63.7 80.2 98.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 24.3 41.5 40.5 96.4 56.4 46.4 24.6 36.3 50.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------