***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 1.6 2.8 4.9 -0.6 42.6 45.3 1.9 3.4 4.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 0.9 2.0 4.5 -0.6 41.6 44.6 1.2 2.7 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.3 4.4 5.0 -0.5 43.4 46.3 3.5 4.9 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.2 -1.0 2.3 -0.5 43.7 46.8 -1.9 -0.4 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 3.0 1.8 3.1 -0.5 43.5 46.5 0.8 2.3 3.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 2.4 1.0 0.7 -0.5 43.2 46.5 0.0 1.7 3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 0.9 2.0 4.5 -0.7 40.5 43.9 1.3 2.8 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -1.8 -3.3 1.0 -0.7 41.2 45.6 -4.1 -2.5 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 3.8 2.5 3.2 -0.5 42.9 46.3 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 3.4 2.1 1.7 -0.6 41.8 45.9 1.3 2.8 4.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 3.2 1.8 2.4 -0.6 42.6 46.0 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 2.2 0.8 1.8 -0.5 43.1 46.6 -0.2 1.5 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 2.7 1.4 1.7 -0.5 43.2 46.2 0.4 2.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.0 2.9 -0.6 41.7 46.0 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.4 3.5 -0.3 45.1 47.3 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 4.0 2.7 2.0 -0.4 44.3 47.1 1.6 3.3 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.0 4.2 -0.8 39.8 43.6 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 1.8 0.7 1.2 -0.6 42.5 46.5 -0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 3.6 2.3 4.6 -0.6 42.4 45.4 1.5 3.0 4.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -0.7 -2.6 0.0 -0.7 40.7 45.1 -3.5 -1.5 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 1.1 2.3 4.3 -0.5 43.4 46.4 1.3 2.8 4.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 3.1 1.7 4.3 -0.7 40.4 44.1 1.1 2.5 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.4 2.4 4.5 -0.5 43.0 46.2 1.6 2.9 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 3.0 1.9 2.9 -0.5 43.2 46.9 1.1 2.5 3.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 3.7 2.5 4.1 -0.5 43.6 46.1 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.0 1.7 1.6 -0.4 44.2 46.9 0.5 2.3 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.3 4.6 -0.6 42.6 45.4 1.3 3.1 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 2.1 0.8 2.5 -0.4 44.9 47.5 -0.4 1.3 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -1.1 -0.1 0.5 -0.8 40.0 44.6 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.3 2.5 4.8 -0.6 42.3 45.1 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------