***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 2.2 1.3 2.4 -0.2 47.9 48.9 -0.1 1.5 3.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 -1.1 1.1 2.2 0.0 49.8 50.5 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 0.8 2.7 2.3 -0.1 48.3 49.8 1.1 2.9 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -5.0 -2.9 -0.5 -0.4 45.4 48.9 -4.4 -2.3 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 -1.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 44.3 47.8 -0.9 0.7 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -2.0 -0.5 -2.0 -0.5 44.6 48.2 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 -1.0 1.1 2.3 -0.1 49.2 50.1 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -6.5 -4.5 -1.5 -0.3 47.1 49.1 -6.1 -4.2 -2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 -0.7 1.0 0.4 -0.3 46.1 48.7 -0.3 1.3 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 -1.5 0.1 -0.9 -0.3 46.8 49.0 -1.2 0.4 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 -1.8 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 44.2 47.6 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -2.4 -0.9 -1.2 -0.4 45.6 48.0 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 -1.6 -0.2 -1.4 -0.4 46.0 48.2 -1.3 0.2 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 -0.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 49.4 50.6 -0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -1.1 0.8 0.7 -0.1 48.2 50.4 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 -0.8 0.6 -1.2 -0.5 44.7 48.0 -0.4 1.1 2.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 -1.2 0.9 2.2 0.0 50.2 50.7 -0.7 0.9 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -2.9 -1.5 -1.5 -0.2 48.3 50.0 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -0.9 1.1 2.2 0.0 50.2 50.8 -0.6 1.1 2.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -3.5 -4.2 -2.4 0.0 49.9 50.8 -6.2 -4.2 -2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 -1.1 0.7 1.6 -0.3 46.6 48.7 -0.7 1.0 2.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 -1.5 0.6 2.2 0.1 51.4 51.5 -1.1 0.5 2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 -1.1 0.8 2.1 0.0 50.3 51.1 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 -1.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 48.4 50.2 -1.3 0.2 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 2.0 1.0 1.1 -0.2 47.5 49.1 -0.3 1.3 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 -1.3 0.2 -1.4 -0.3 46.1 47.9 -1.0 0.5 1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 2.4 1.3 2.0 -0.2 48.1 49.0 -0.5 1.5 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -2.5 -0.9 -0.5 -0.4 45.3 48.9 -2.0 -0.4 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 -0.6 -1.6 -1.7 -0.1 48.9 50.3 -3.4 -1.5 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 -0.8 1.4 2.3 -0.1 49.3 50.2 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------