***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 11.0 11.0 11.5 -2.7 23.1 24.9 12.4 14.3 16.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 11.0 11.0 11.8 -2.6 23.6 25.6 12.1 13.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 11.5 11.6 12.1 -2.5 25.0 26.8 12.6 14.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.8 5.9 8.8 -1.9 30.6 32.1 6.2 8.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 11.2 11.2 9.9 -2.9 23.1 24.9 12.5 14.5 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 10.4 10.3 7.6 -3.7 19.6 21.4 12.1 14.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 10.6 10.3 11.3 -2.9 20.9 23.0 11.8 13.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 4.2 4.1 8.5 -3.1 22.4 24.5 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 11.7 11.8 11.1 -2.5 25.6 27.4 12.8 14.8 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 11.1 11.2 9.6 -3.0 23.7 25.6 12.4 14.4 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 11.5 11.4 10.4 -2.9 23.7 25.5 12.7 14.8 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 11.2 11.1 9.2 -2.9 23.3 25.4 12.5 14.6 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 11.2 10.8 9.5 -3.6 19.4 21.4 12.8 14.8 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 11.4 11.6 11.7 -2.4 27.1 28.9 12.4 14.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.0 12.0 11.3 -1.3 35.7 36.8 11.8 13.3 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 12.0 11.8 9.4 -3.3 21.4 23.2 13.5 15.5 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 10.0 9.9 11.1 -2.8 20.9 22.8 11.3 13.0 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 10.1 9.9 9.0 -3.2 22.1 24.0 11.4 13.4 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 11.2 11.3 12.1 -2.3 25.9 27.8 12.1 14.0 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 8.3 7.9 6.9 -3.8 17.6 19.8 10.1 12.1 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 11.4 11.5 11.7 -2.7 24.1 25.9 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 10.7 10.7 11.6 -2.5 23.2 25.1 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 11.4 11.6 12.5 -2.0 29.1 30.9 12.1 14.0 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 11.6 11.6 11.3 -2.7 24.9 26.8 12.7 14.9 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 10.5 10.4 10.3 -2.9 21.7 23.5 11.8 13.6 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 11.3 10.9 7.9 -3.4 18.9 21.1 12.7 14.6 16.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 11.0 10.8 10.7 -3.1 19.9 21.8 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.6 12.1 9.9 -1.8 33.4 34.6 12.0 13.8 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 7.2 6.9 8.4 -3.4 20.0 22.0 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 10.9 10.8 11.8 -2.6 23.8 25.8 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------