***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.5 12.0 -0.2 47.7 50.5 10.0 11.8 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.0 12.1 -0.1 48.2 50.1 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.1 12.5 -0.1 48.5 51.1 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.5 5.6 9.1 -0.2 47.3 50.5 4.1 5.8 7.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.9 10.6 -0.3 46.9 50.6 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 9.0 11.3 9.6 -0.2 47.9 51.2 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.8 12.0 -0.2 47.7 49.6 9.3 11.0 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.1 9.7 -0.2 48.1 51.4 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 10.3 12.3 11.4 -0.3 47.0 50.8 10.7 12.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.9 11.7 10.5 -0.3 47.1 50.9 10.2 12.0 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.2 12.2 10.9 -0.2 47.3 50.9 10.5 12.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 9.9 12.1 10.3 -0.1 49.1 51.9 10.2 12.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 9.8 12.0 10.6 -0.2 47.5 50.6 10.2 12.3 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.5 11.7 -0.2 47.4 51.2 10.9 12.8 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.8 10.4 -0.2 47.2 50.1 9.5 11.0 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.4 12.5 10.5 -0.2 47.5 50.9 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.4 11.6 -0.4 45.5 48.1 9.3 10.8 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.7 10.6 10.2 -0.3 47.4 51.2 9.1 10.9 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 9.7 11.6 12.4 -0.1 49.3 51.0 9.9 11.6 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.8 8.9 8.6 -0.2 47.6 51.3 7.2 9.1 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 13.1 11.9 12.0 -0.3 46.5 50.1 10.4 12.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.5 10.9 11.6 -0.4 45.4 48.3 9.8 11.4 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 9.7 11.8 12.6 0.1 50.7 52.5 10.0 11.8 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.6 12.6 11.7 -0.2 47.8 51.3 10.9 12.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.9 10.8 -0.3 46.8 50.0 9.5 11.3 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.7 11.9 9.9 0.0 49.8 52.3 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.5 11.6 -0.2 47.4 50.2 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.7 9.8 -0.2 47.2 50.4 9.6 10.9 12.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.1 8.1 9.6 -0.3 46.7 50.9 6.5 8.4 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.2 12.3 -0.1 49.1 50.9 9.5 11.2 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------