***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.9 9.9 9.4 -0.7 42.4 46.1 8.6 10.9 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 7.3 9.2 9.6 -0.5 44.6 47.8 7.7 9.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.1 9.9 -0.6 43.9 47.4 8.6 10.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.1 3.8 6.7 -1.0 40.0 43.9 2.8 5.1 7.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.7 9.6 7.8 -0.9 40.8 44.6 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.2 9.5 7.2 -0.8 42.5 46.7 8.3 10.4 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.0 9.5 -0.5 43.9 47.2 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.0 2.8 7.5 -0.5 45.1 48.4 1.5 3.3 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.3 8.6 -0.8 42.0 45.7 9.0 11.4 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.2 9.9 8.1 -0.7 43.6 47.1 8.5 10.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.9 10.1 7.9 -0.8 42.4 46.0 8.8 11.0 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.3 7.9 -0.5 45.2 48.5 8.7 10.9 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.3 7.6 -0.6 44.2 47.9 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.3 10.7 9.3 -0.5 45.2 48.7 8.9 11.5 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.6 7.9 7.3 -1.0 39.1 43.2 7.3 8.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.4 10.6 7.7 -0.7 43.0 46.6 9.3 11.5 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.3 8.6 9.3 -0.5 43.8 47.1 7.3 9.4 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 7.2 9.3 8.3 -0.4 45.8 49.1 7.7 9.9 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 7.5 9.7 9.8 -0.4 45.2 48.3 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 7.3 6.6 -0.3 47.1 50.0 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.8 9.8 9.1 -0.8 41.4 45.3 8.7 11.0 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.3 9.3 9.4 -0.5 44.7 47.7 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.6 9.8 10.1 -0.4 45.8 48.8 8.1 10.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 8.7 11.0 9.2 -0.5 45.3 48.7 9.2 11.6 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.8 8.8 7.8 -0.9 40.0 44.3 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.9 9.9 7.6 -0.3 47.1 50.5 8.4 10.2 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.8 9.8 8.9 -0.8 41.8 45.7 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.1 8.3 7.1 -1.0 40.3 44.1 7.5 9.3 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.7 7.7 -0.4 46.1 49.4 4.9 7.3 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 7.4 9.3 9.6 -0.5 44.4 47.7 7.8 10.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------