***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.8 8.9 8.5 0.0 50.5 50.6 6.7 8.8 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.7 8.6 0.2 52.5 52.3 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 7.1 9.7 8.9 0.1 51.1 51.2 7.4 9.6 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.2 5.7 -0.3 46.7 48.4 1.3 3.7 5.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.3 6.7 -0.2 47.5 48.6 7.4 9.6 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.6 6.4 -0.1 49.3 49.7 6.6 8.7 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.4 8.5 0.2 52.2 51.9 6.3 8.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.7 6.5 0.1 51.1 51.1 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.2 7.6 -0.1 49.0 49.5 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.3 7.1 0.1 50.5 50.5 7.1 9.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.1 9.6 6.9 -0.2 48.5 49.4 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.1 9.6 6.7 0.0 49.8 50.4 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.2 9.8 6.5 0.0 49.9 50.0 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.6 8.5 0.3 53.1 52.6 7.6 10.1 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.0 6.3 -0.4 46.0 48.3 5.4 7.5 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 7.8 10.1 6.6 -0.2 48.4 49.2 8.1 10.3 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.0 8.4 0.2 51.9 51.6 5.8 7.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.8 7.4 0.2 52.2 51.6 5.8 7.6 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.0 8.8 0.3 53.0 52.6 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.8 5.8 0.4 53.9 52.6 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.8 9.7 8.1 -0.1 48.8 49.4 7.7 9.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.7 8.5 0.2 52.6 52.1 6.1 8.4 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.9 9.2 0.4 53.6 52.9 6.3 8.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.5 8.3 0.2 52.2 51.8 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.7 7.0 -0.1 49.1 49.6 6.9 8.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.9 9.2 6.5 0.2 52.3 52.0 7.1 9.0 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.8 8.0 0.1 50.8 50.6 7.6 9.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.2 7.7 6.0 -0.4 46.0 48.0 5.9 8.2 10.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.6 6.9 0.3 52.4 51.7 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.6 8.6 0.2 52.2 52.2 6.4 8.4 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------