***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9.8 10.3 10.4 -0.9 35.7 40.2 10.1 11.5 12.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.4 9.9 10.5 -0.7 37.9 42.1 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.4 10.9 10.8 -0.8 37.5 41.9 10.5 11.9 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.3 4.7 7.6 -0.9 36.4 41.2 4.5 5.7 6.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 10.1 10.5 8.7 -1.1 33.5 38.7 10.4 11.8 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 9.4 9.7 7.7 -1.2 31.8 37.1 9.8 11.2 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 9.2 9.6 10.3 -0.9 35.9 40.4 9.4 10.6 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.2 3.5 8.1 -0.9 35.7 40.8 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.6 11.1 9.7 -0.9 35.8 40.7 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.9 10.4 8.8 -1.0 35.5 40.6 10.2 11.6 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 10.3 10.7 9.0 -1.0 34.7 39.7 10.6 12.0 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 10.2 10.7 8.5 -0.9 36.4 41.0 10.4 11.8 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 10.2 10.5 8.5 -1.1 33.2 38.1 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.3 10.3 -0.7 39.3 44.0 10.7 12.2 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.6 9.4 8.8 -0.7 38.1 42.2 9.0 10.2 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.1 8.6 -1.1 33.6 38.7 11.1 12.5 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.2 10.1 -0.9 35.1 40.1 9.1 10.2 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.9 9.4 8.7 -0.9 36.1 41.4 9.2 10.4 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 10.4 10.8 -0.6 39.7 43.7 9.8 11.2 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.1 7.6 7.0 -1.0 34.1 39.9 7.5 8.8 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 10.3 10.7 10.2 -1.0 34.6 39.6 10.5 11.9 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.4 9.8 10.3 -0.8 36.9 41.6 9.5 10.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.7 10.5 11.1 -0.5 42.0 45.7 9.8 11.2 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.4 10.1 -0.8 38.0 42.9 11.0 12.4 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 9.3 9.7 9.0 -1.1 33.1 38.3 9.6 10.9 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 9.7 10.3 8.0 -0.9 35.2 39.8 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 9.9 10.4 9.8 -1.0 33.7 38.7 10.4 11.7 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.0 9.7 8.2 -0.8 37.1 41.6 9.5 10.6 11.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.6 7.1 8.1 -1.0 34.9 40.7 6.9 8.2 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 9.4 10.0 10.6 -0.7 38.0 42.1 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------