***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.1 9.2 9.5 109.1 67.8 54.2 2.7 5.2 8.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.1 8.5 95.4 63.6 51.2 2.5 5.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.8 9.5 9.1 100.4 65.2 51.8 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.4 8.1 84.6 60.1 45.8 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.0 9.3 10.0 107.1 67.5 51.7 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.6 7.8 83.0 61.1 46.0 2.0 3.9 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.5 8.3 9.1 102.9 66.3 54.3 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.9 10.0 86.3 60.6 46.1 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.5 9.7 103.6 66.4 51.4 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.7 8.8 10.6 95.8 63.5 49.2 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.2 7.3 9.3 95.8 64.2 48.5 2.4 4.6 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.4 8.4 8.6 85.5 60.9 45.3 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.9 7.5 8.8 83.6 61.1 46.6 2.6 5.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.1 14.1 10.4 92.1 61.7 49.3 4.5 9.3 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.0 4.2 5.1 58.4 51.5 36.8 1.9 4.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.4 8.7 89.7 62.9 47.2 2.3 4.2 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.6 8.2 9.1 98.9 64.9 53.2 2.1 4.7 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.6 10.8 89.9 61.0 47.5 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.8 8.4 92.3 62.4 49.9 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.8 8.7 11.1 78.3 56.9 43.4 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.8 8.6 9.7 105.1 66.9 53.0 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.9 8.9 89.3 61.5 50.0 2.3 5.0 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.4 8.7 93.0 62.4 49.5 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.9 10.7 10.1 93.7 62.5 49.1 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.2 10.2 10.7 112.1 69.0 56.5 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.3 5.1 7.1 70.1 56.3 40.9 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.5 9.5 10.2 114.4 69.5 56.8 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.1 6.7 73.0 56.2 41.4 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.9 10.6 81.8 58.1 45.4 5.3 10.0 16.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.1 8.4 8.4 97.1 64.4 51.8 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------