***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.9 12.2 12.8 97.9 63.9 47.9 4.0 7.7 13.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.6 10.1 82.6 58.3 44.5 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.9 11.4 12.1 93.4 61.8 44.9 3.7 7.6 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.1 14.1 13.5 97.4 63.5 43.6 3.7 8.3 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.9 10.5 12.6 94.9 62.0 39.7 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.4 9.6 12.6 98.2 62.9 45.3 3.1 6.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.6 9.3 9.7 79.5 57.1 43.4 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.4 15.6 12.8 88.1 58.9 42.9 4.4 10.7 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.3 10.5 13.1 99.7 63.4 43.1 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.6 10.0 12.7 90.4 59.5 40.8 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.6 10.1 12.9 95.6 61.7 43.0 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.3 9.3 12.7 93.4 60.9 44.9 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.6 10.9 12.8 92.8 60.9 41.4 3.5 7.3 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.1 12.7 13.8 88.9 59.4 44.9 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.6 11.1 12.9 96.3 63.6 44.9 3.0 6.6 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.8 11.2 13.0 98.8 63.1 44.0 3.6 7.1 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.7 9.8 10.0 78.8 57.0 43.0 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.9 10.3 13.5 89.2 58.6 41.1 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.3 10.7 86.0 59.4 45.6 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.8 11.3 15.3 79.7 54.4 40.0 4.4 9.5 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.5 11.1 13.2 101.7 64.4 44.6 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.1 10.1 10.9 81.3 57.9 44.7 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.2 11.1 11.5 88.0 60.3 46.0 4.0 7.8 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.8 10.2 13.3 92.4 60.6 43.3 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.4 11.4 13.6 95.3 62.7 43.8 3.1 6.8 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.4 9.0 12.3 84.8 57.6 42.3 2.9 6.6 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.3 9.8 13.1 95.5 63.0 47.0 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.9 9.4 12.6 97.3 63.6 43.4 2.6 5.5 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.6 14.7 14.7 87.3 57.5 41.5 5.2 11.2 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.3 10.4 84.2 58.7 44.5 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------