***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 3.5 9.3 9.6 82.1 56.2 42.3 3.8 7.5 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.6 10.3 9.7 86.9 59.5 44.3 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.9 12.7 9.8 85.5 57.7 43.3 4.6 9.5 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.1 15.3 10.8 88.4 59.6 45.3 5.7 11.0 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 5.3 13.4 10.2 84.6 58.1 44.0 4.9 10.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.4 16.5 11.1 90.9 60.8 46.7 6.1 11.6 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.8 10.1 9.9 89.9 60.6 44.6 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.8 18.3 10.8 81.9 55.7 42.7 7.7 15.1 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 6.0 14.2 11.1 89.5 59.6 45.6 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.3 14.7 11.3 85.4 57.2 43.5 5.7 11.4 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 16.0 14.8 9.7 82.4 57.1 43.9 6.0 11.6 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.5 15.7 10.0 82.9 56.9 44.1 5.8 12.2 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.9 17.8 11.3 89.0 59.8 46.1 6.5 12.8 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.2 12.9 88.0 58.8 45.1 5.9 12.0 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.1 16.0 11.9 95.2 63.0 46.1 4.1 9.4 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.9 15.9 10.3 86.4 58.9 45.6 6.3 12.0 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.2 10.9 9.8 90.0 60.7 45.6 4.2 7.8 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.0 15.1 12.1 85.2 56.9 43.5 5.6 11.7 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.2 9.6 85.0 58.4 44.1 4.0 8.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 6.7 16.6 14.2 80.4 54.9 41.6 6.4 13.6 24.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.5 13.8 10.5 89.4 59.7 45.2 4.9 9.8 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.6 11.5 10.0 85.4 59.1 45.4 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.1 10.1 84.8 58.3 44.8 4.4 8.5 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.2 13.5 11.7 88.5 58.6 44.6 4.5 9.8 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.2 10.3 10.6 83.9 57.9 44.0 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.1 17.2 11.8 92.9 61.7 46.3 5.9 11.5 19.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.4 10.9 10.1 82.7 56.9 43.2 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.8 14.9 10.6 90.1 60.5 45.3 4.8 10.1 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.2 20.9 13.0 83.5 56.1 43.2 9.0 17.0 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.7 9.9 9.5 83.2 57.8 42.9 3.6 7.5 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------