***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.5 9.9 74.5 53.3 42.7 3.4 6.7 11.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.0 8.3 73.4 52.8 42.0 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.6 7.9 9.9 76.5 54.3 44.5 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 10.3 11.1 74.1 53.6 44.2 4.6 9.1 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.2 11.4 76.0 53.6 44.9 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.3 12.4 86.5 58.4 47.2 4.6 9.2 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.0 8.6 75.7 54.5 43.0 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.4 18.3 14.4 92.4 60.0 48.7 6.8 13.2 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.1 7.7 12.1 79.1 54.6 46.1 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.9 13.6 85.8 57.1 47.7 3.0 6.7 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.7 10.3 11.9 81.9 56.2 46.9 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.9 12.9 13.0 90.2 59.7 48.8 3.9 8.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.8 13.1 86.1 58.1 47.8 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.0 13.6 12.3 79.0 54.2 45.0 6.1 11.7 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.9 11.9 12.3 82.2 57.7 45.3 3.8 8.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.3 9.2 12.0 81.6 56.4 46.7 3.1 7.1 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.7 7.3 8.0 72.1 53.4 42.4 3.1 6.5 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.4 14.9 90.7 59.0 49.1 4.8 9.1 15.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.4 8.5 73.7 52.6 42.4 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.6 15.4 19.3 98.4 61.9 49.1 5.0 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.0 7.6 11.1 77.2 54.1 45.2 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.6 10.0 8.0 70.4 52.3 41.9 5.2 9.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.7 7.5 9.2 74.8 53.0 43.4 3.0 6.7 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.8 11.5 12.4 83.4 56.7 47.2 4.2 8.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.6 6.9 11.1 73.6 52.3 42.4 3.3 6.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.9 13.5 91.6 60.8 48.9 4.8 9.6 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.1 10.3 74.0 52.7 42.2 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.2 11.3 78.6 55.9 45.1 3.8 8.2 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.9 21.7 16.6 95.3 60.7 49.7 7.2 15.0 26.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.5 7.5 8.8 74.3 53.1 42.2 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------