***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 24.2 36.7 41.8 89.4 51.0 45.7 24.1 36.2 50.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 44.6 33.9 36.6 83.9 46.3 42.6 24.6 36.9 51.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 30.9 44.9 40.9 88.1 49.9 44.8 32.7 44.9 59.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 34.8 49.9 43.6 85.9 49.1 44.1 36.9 50.8 66.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 32.4 45.2 44.1 89.0 50.5 44.9 33.3 44.9 57.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 50.4 45.1 44.0 90.1 51.5 47.1 32.0 44.0 57.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 21.5 31.6 37.3 85.9 48.2 44.1 21.1 33.0 47.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 79.4 66.8 48.1 87.5 48.4 44.2 49.6 68.8 90.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 29.9 43.0 46.0 91.6 52.1 46.2 30.6 41.5 53.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 34.9 46.7 48.1 88.8 49.1 44.4 35.1 47.3 61.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 52.8 44.9 43.8 88.5 50.0 45.0 31.8 44.9 60.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 58.8 49.9 44.3 88.4 49.9 45.3 35.5 49.9 67.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 58.3 50.0 45.9 88.1 50.0 45.4 35.2 50.0 67.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 48.1 61.9 49.4 86.6 47.4 43.2 50.2 64.2 79.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 28.0 43.8 42.1 85.0 50.6 44.5 28.1 43.3 61.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 49.4 41.6 43.8 88.9 50.7 45.9 26.7 40.9 58.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 22.8 33.4 36.9 84.2 46.4 42.7 23.7 36.2 51.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 39.5 51.9 51.4 88.7 48.3 43.9 39.8 53.4 68.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 29.3 38.7 37.3 83.8 46.3 42.6 28.9 41.9 56.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 47.0 58.6 59.9 84.9 45.2 41.8 47.6 63.1 80.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 29.0 43.8 44.5 92.1 52.9 46.8 31.1 41.8 53.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 27.0 36.7 37.9 81.4 43.5 41.0 28.8 41.8 57.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 30.9 41.0 39.5 84.7 47.1 43.1 31.6 43.0 55.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 35.3 49.8 47.5 89.2 49.6 44.6 36.5 50.1 65.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 26.4 39.4 46.0 89.3 51.1 45.9 27.2 38.4 51.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 33.6 46.0 44.8 85.9 48.8 44.5 33.4 47.1 62.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 24.3 36.6 43.7 89.6 51.0 46.0 24.2 35.9 50.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 27.8 41.2 41.2 85.5 49.7 44.3 28.8 41.6 57.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 61.1 76.9 54.8 87.5 47.0 43.1 62.2 80.4 99.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 24.3 33.1 37.1 83.8 46.5 42.8 23.8 35.8 50.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------