***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 10.0 9.6 10.6 -3.4 17.7 20.3 11.8 13.8 15.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 9.9 9.5 10.6 -3.6 16.8 19.4 11.7 13.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 84 16 0 100 10.3 10.3 11.2 -3.2 20.3 22.9 12.2 14.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 4.1 4.3 7.9 -3.0 21.5 24.0 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 10.2 10.4 9.5 -3.2 21.0 23.5 12.0 14.0 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 10.5 10.3 8.1 -3.2 21.8 24.6 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 9.5 9.0 10.3 -3.8 15.5 18.1 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 3.7 3.6 8.6 -2.9 23.8 26.8 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 10.5 10.8 10.5 -3.0 21.9 24.3 12.3 14.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 10.6 10.8 9.5 -2.9 23.8 26.5 12.1 14.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 10.7 10.9 10.2 -3.0 23.1 25.7 12.3 14.4 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 10.7 10.7 9.1 -3.0 22.6 25.3 12.2 14.2 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 10.9 10.9 9.8 -3.2 21.9 24.5 12.4 14.5 16.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 10.6 10.9 11.0 -2.8 24.7 27.4 12.1 14.2 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 10.2 10.1 9.9 -2.9 19.6 21.9 11.5 13.0 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 11.4 11.5 9.5 -3.1 22.3 24.8 13.0 15.0 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 91 9 0 100 9.3 8.9 10.1 -3.6 15.8 18.6 11.1 12.8 14.4 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 9.9 10.1 9.1 -2.8 25.2 28.0 11.2 13.1 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 9.9 9.8 10.9 -3.4 18.5 21.1 11.7 13.6 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 8.7 8.6 7.7 -2.6 25.9 29.3 9.6 11.6 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 10.4 10.5 11.1 -3.2 20.7 23.3 12.2 14.1 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 89 11 0 100 9.7 9.5 10.6 -3.3 17.6 20.5 11.5 13.4 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 9.9 10.1 11.3 -3.0 21.5 24.1 11.6 13.6 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 10.9 11.2 10.8 -2.8 24.4 27.0 12.4 14.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 9.8 9.5 9.8 -3.4 18.5 21.0 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 11.0 10.5 8.1 -3.4 18.9 21.7 12.4 14.3 16.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 10.2 9.8 10.1 -3.6 17.1 19.6 12.0 13.9 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 10.4 10.5 9.0 -2.9 22.3 24.7 11.8 13.5 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 7.2 7.5 8.7 -2.6 26.3 29.3 8.4 10.6 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 88 12 0 100 9.6 9.3 10.7 -3.6 17.0 19.6 11.5 13.3 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------