***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9.2 9.3 9.4 -2.3 26.8 31.3 10.0 11.8 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 8.4 8.7 9.4 -2.3 27.8 31.9 9.3 10.9 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 9.8 9.9 9.8 -2.3 28.2 32.9 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.3 3.5 6.6 -2.3 26.6 31.5 4.2 5.8 7.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 9.8 9.8 8.0 -2.3 27.3 32.8 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 8.5 9.4 7.5 -1.6 33.4 37.7 9.4 11.4 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 8.2 8.4 9.4 -2.3 27.5 31.6 9.1 10.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 2.2 2.5 7.3 -2.0 30.3 35.3 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 10.2 10.3 8.8 -2.2 28.6 33.7 10.8 12.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 9.6 9.9 7.9 -2.2 29.8 35.0 10.2 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 9.9 10.1 8.4 -2.1 29.4 34.6 10.6 12.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 9.6 9.9 7.9 -1.9 30.2 35.2 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 9.3 10.0 8.5 -1.8 31.6 36.8 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 10.2 10.7 9.1 -2.1 31.3 36.0 10.9 12.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 8.5 8.5 8.1 -2.2 26.6 31.4 9.2 10.6 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 9.9 10.4 8.1 -2.0 30.1 35.3 10.7 12.8 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 8.1 8.4 9.1 -2.3 27.4 31.4 8.9 10.5 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 8.6 8.9 7.7 -2.1 30.8 35.9 9.1 10.8 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 8.9 9.3 9.6 -2.2 28.6 32.9 9.8 11.5 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 6.6 7.1 6.3 -1.8 31.5 36.7 7.3 9.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 9.7 9.8 9.4 -2.3 27.6 32.6 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 8.7 9.1 9.3 -2.1 28.6 32.7 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 9.2 9.5 9.8 -2.1 30.0 34.5 9.8 11.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 10.4 10.8 9.1 -2.1 30.7 35.5 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 8.4 8.6 8.2 -2.4 25.7 30.6 9.5 11.3 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 9.1 9.7 7.6 -1.7 30.8 36.2 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 8.9 9.2 9.0 -2.3 26.6 31.2 10.0 11.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 9.0 9.1 7.4 -2.2 27.7 32.6 9.5 10.8 12.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.0 6.5 7.2 -2.0 31.5 36.7 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 8.6 8.8 9.5 -2.3 27.6 31.9 9.4 11.1 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------