***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.1 9.9 0.4 53.8 53.3 8.1 10.6 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.4 10.0 0.5 55.6 54.6 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 11.3 11.0 10.2 0.4 53.5 53.0 8.0 10.5 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 5.6 4.6 6.9 -0.1 49.3 49.4 2.3 4.7 7.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.5 8.1 0.1 50.5 50.7 8.0 10.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.1 8.2 0.9 58.5 57.4 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.3 9.9 0.5 55.4 54.5 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 3.5 3.5 8.0 0.7 56.4 55.6 1.0 2.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 11.7 11.3 8.9 0.2 52.0 52.0 8.5 11.0 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 10.9 10.9 8.5 0.5 55.0 54.4 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.3 10.9 8.3 0.3 52.7 52.8 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.2 8.2 0.5 54.9 54.7 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.4 8.2 0.7 56.9 56.5 8.3 10.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.1 9.6 0.7 56.8 55.1 8.4 11.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.8 7.6 -0.1 49.5 49.6 7.1 8.8 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.6 8.2 0.4 53.9 53.8 8.8 11.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.9 9.8 0.5 55.9 55.0 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.1 10.3 8.8 0.8 57.4 55.8 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.8 10.8 10.1 0.5 55.5 54.5 7.6 10.0 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.7 7.3 1.2 61.4 59.0 4.8 7.1 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.4 10.8 9.5 0.2 51.9 51.8 8.1 10.6 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.5 9.7 0.6 55.9 55.0 7.4 9.7 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.8 10.3 0.6 55.8 54.7 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.9 9.5 0.6 55.4 54.2 8.5 11.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.0 8.3 0.2 52.4 52.2 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.8 8.0 0.8 58.5 57.9 8.0 9.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.1 9.5 0.4 54.4 53.9 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.1 7.3 0.0 49.5 49.6 7.2 9.2 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.0 8.4 1.0 59.2 57.2 4.3 6.7 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.3 10.0 0.5 54.9 54.1 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------