***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 10.7 11.0 9.2 1.7 69.0 63.8 6.6 8.7 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 10.4 10.5 9.1 1.5 67.9 63.5 6.4 8.4 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 11.7 11.9 9.6 1.7 68.8 63.8 7.5 9.6 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 4.3 6.1 6.6 1.7 68.2 63.5 1.4 3.7 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 10.1 11.8 7.7 1.7 68.5 63.5 7.5 9.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 10.9 10.9 7.3 2.0 69.7 65.0 6.7 8.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 10.2 10.2 9.1 1.6 68.3 63.7 6.3 8.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 4.4 4.5 7.2 1.7 68.1 63.7 0.9 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.9 12.7 8.5 1.8 68.9 63.7 8.1 10.3 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 11.2 11.5 7.9 1.8 68.8 63.8 7.2 9.2 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 10.4 12.2 7.7 1.8 68.5 63.7 7.6 9.8 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 11.7 11.8 7.5 1.7 67.5 63.4 7.6 9.7 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.0 7.2 1.7 67.2 63.1 7.7 9.9 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 12.6 12.8 9.0 1.8 68.9 63.6 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.9 9.3 7.3 1.6 67.7 64.1 5.3 7.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 12.4 12.5 7.5 1.8 68.2 63.6 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 9.9 9.8 8.9 1.5 67.8 63.3 5.9 7.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 9.3 9.4 7.9 1.9 68.8 63.4 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 10.8 10.9 9.3 1.6 67.9 63.5 6.5 8.6 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 8.4 8.3 6.1 1.6 67.3 63.2 4.4 6.3 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 11.7 12.0 9.0 1.7 68.5 63.4 7.7 9.8 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 10.5 10.5 8.9 1.5 67.3 63.1 6.2 8.3 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 10.6 10.7 9.6 1.7 68.4 63.7 6.4 8.5 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 12.5 12.8 8.8 1.9 69.1 63.6 8.1 10.3 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 10.7 10.7 7.7 1.6 68.2 63.1 6.9 8.7 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 10.9 10.7 6.9 1.5 67.0 63.6 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 11.8 12.0 8.7 1.7 69.2 63.7 7.7 9.7 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 8.7 10.4 7.1 1.8 68.5 63.9 5.9 8.1 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 8.5 8.5 7.3 1.8 68.4 63.3 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 10.3 10.4 9.2 1.6 68.4 63.9 6.5 8.4 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------