***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.8 10.1 9.8 -0.9 36.0 37.9 9.8 11.2 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 9.2 9.6 9.8 -0.9 35.7 37.6 9.4 10.6 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 12.2 10.7 10.2 -0.9 37.3 39.3 10.3 11.6 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.6 7.0 -0.9 36.3 38.8 4.3 5.6 6.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.5 8.3 -0.9 36.5 39.1 10.2 11.6 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.5 10.4 7.8 -0.5 43.0 44.5 9.5 11.0 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 8.9 9.3 9.7 -1.0 34.8 36.7 9.2 10.4 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.5 3.6 7.8 -0.6 40.7 42.7 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.6 11.1 9.2 -0.8 38.2 40.5 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.6 8.5 -0.7 40.1 42.2 10.0 11.4 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.4 10.9 8.7 -0.8 39.1 41.4 10.3 11.8 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.2 10.8 8.2 -0.7 39.8 42.0 10.2 11.6 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.3 10.9 8.4 -0.7 40.2 42.6 10.3 11.8 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.6 11.3 9.7 -0.6 41.4 43.2 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.0 8.2 -0.9 36.5 38.8 8.8 10.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.9 11.4 8.3 -0.7 39.5 41.8 10.8 12.3 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.6 9.0 9.5 -1.0 34.9 36.9 8.9 10.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.6 8.3 -0.6 41.7 43.5 8.9 10.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.5 9.9 10.0 -0.9 37.0 38.9 9.6 10.9 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 8.0 6.9 -0.4 43.4 44.9 7.2 8.5 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.2 10.6 9.7 -0.9 36.8 39.0 10.3 11.7 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.1 9.6 9.6 -0.9 36.6 38.5 9.3 10.6 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.1 10.3 -0.7 39.6 41.3 9.6 10.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.8 11.4 9.5 -0.6 40.7 42.6 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.6 8.5 -1.0 35.0 37.4 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.7 10.4 7.7 -0.7 39.2 41.5 9.9 11.2 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.4 9.3 -0.9 35.7 37.7 10.1 11.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.6 7.7 -0.8 37.8 40.1 9.2 10.4 11.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.5 7.9 -0.5 43.2 44.7 6.7 8.0 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.2 9.6 9.8 -0.9 35.8 37.7 9.4 10.6 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------