***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 11.4 12.0 14.3 125.0 71.5 60.9 3.4 6.3 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 11.8 12.0 14.0 123.6 71.1 61.2 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 13.1 12.7 13.3 118.9 69.7 59.4 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.9 10.5 81.7 57.6 49.5 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.5 9.2 10.8 90.4 60.8 52.9 3.5 6.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.8 7.8 11.4 108.1 67.6 59.4 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 10.3 10.3 13.8 119.7 70.2 60.6 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.1 15.3 12.6 94.3 62.2 55.1 4.0 9.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.7 9.1 11.7 101.1 64.5 56.2 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.7 10.5 12.8 99.4 64.0 57.1 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.5 8.4 11.3 90.2 61.7 53.6 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.8 10.4 11.7 96.4 63.4 55.1 3.5 6.8 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.2 10.2 12.0 95.2 63.5 56.3 3.1 6.4 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.2 20.3 16.1 116.0 68.8 59.1 5.0 10.5 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.2 9.4 76.0 56.6 47.5 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.6 8.9 11.4 93.9 63.3 54.6 2.6 5.6 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.5 9.1 13.1 113.3 68.5 58.5 2.0 4.5 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.8 13.9 13.6 105.5 65.5 58.1 4.3 8.5 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 12.1 12.5 14.2 123.6 71.1 61.4 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 10.5 11.8 13.6 92.2 60.3 54.0 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.4 12.6 108.8 66.9 56.7 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 11.3 10.5 14.1 115.3 69.0 59.0 2.3 5.1 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 13.8 14.0 14.3 121.3 70.4 60.7 3.3 6.8 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.9 13.7 13.6 111.3 67.5 58.8 3.1 6.9 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.9 10.0 13.4 106.9 65.9 56.3 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 6.2 7.0 10.1 88.3 60.7 52.7 2.1 4.7 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 11.0 11.3 14.2 122.0 70.5 60.2 2.6 5.5 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.6 9.9 80.5 57.7 49.2 2.0 4.1 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 14.8 17.7 13.5 99.6 63.4 55.7 5.5 11.2 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 11.4 11.7 13.8 123.8 71.2 61.5 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------