***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 15.4 18.9 17.9 158.3 79.1 65.5 3.7 7.3 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 15.8 18.1 14.4 138.5 75.1 62.3 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 14.9 19.1 17.7 156.9 78.8 65.7 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 18.3 24.5 22.1 167.5 80.6 67.1 3.8 8.2 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 14.3 20.3 20.9 176.0 82.2 68.2 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 11.2 18.0 20.9 185.1 84.0 69.8 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 15.4 18.4 14.3 144.4 76.3 63.2 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 19.7 30.1 21.8 181.4 83.4 68.6 4.3 8.9 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 12.8 18.0 20.0 173.5 81.8 67.7 2.9 6.1 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 14.4 20.7 21.0 175.7 82.5 67.8 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 13.6 20.5 21.5 180.8 82.9 68.7 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 13.6 20.6 21.0 184.1 83.5 68.7 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 13.3 22.5 22.0 191.7 84.4 69.9 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 16.7 20.7 20.3 154.5 78.5 65.3 4.3 8.2 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 13.9 19.5 22.0 167.1 80.3 66.9 2.4 5.7 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 12.6 20.9 21.9 194.5 85.0 70.2 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 17.4 18.6 13.2 126.9 72.4 60.3 4.1 8.4 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 14.3 19.2 20.7 166.5 81.0 66.8 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 15.2 18.0 15.1 140.6 75.5 62.9 3.4 7.3 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 19.0 27.6 25.4 168.9 81.6 67.7 3.7 8.1 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 13.4 17.6 19.4 165.8 80.5 67.5 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.7 17.9 14.4 126.4 72.3 61.1 3.6 7.8 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 14.5 17.0 16.4 143.5 76.1 63.8 3.5 7.0 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 13.4 18.3 19.8 163.5 80.2 67.1 2.8 6.0 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 14.6 19.1 20.3 158.6 79.2 67.1 2.6 6.1 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 14.3 22.4 23.3 183.1 83.6 70.8 2.8 6.2 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 12.1 15.3 18.8 154.5 78.4 65.2 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 12.0 18.3 21.9 182.7 82.9 68.2 2.1 5.0 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 21.7 29.5 22.1 162.3 80.5 66.2 4.3 9.2 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 14.2 17.0 15.6 145.9 76.7 62.9 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------