***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.8 11.3 12.0 100.0 64.1 50.4 3.5 7.0 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 13.0 11.5 105.8 66.2 51.0 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.0 15.9 12.2 97.5 63.6 50.1 5.0 10.0 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.8 17.0 12.5 91.7 61.0 48.8 6.1 11.9 20.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.4 14.0 11.8 89.4 59.5 47.5 4.9 10.0 17.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 6.8 16.7 12.1 90.0 58.9 44.7 6.5 12.5 20.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.2 11.2 106.8 66.2 50.7 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.1 22.3 13.7 99.1 62.6 50.2 7.1 14.4 25.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.9 14.2 12.1 87.5 58.8 47.5 5.5 10.6 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.3 15.7 12.9 89.4 59.2 47.9 5.5 11.4 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.4 16.5 11.9 93.4 60.8 48.7 5.8 11.4 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.8 20.2 12.5 100.8 63.2 50.3 5.8 12.3 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.8 19.0 12.8 96.8 61.8 48.5 6.0 12.4 21.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.2 17.8 14.8 90.9 60.4 48.5 6.4 12.6 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 5.3 18.5 14.3 99.6 64.3 48.5 4.2 10.2 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.0 16.0 11.9 94.6 61.2 48.3 5.4 10.8 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.7 11.8 11.5 111.1 67.7 51.7 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.9 16.8 13.8 87.9 58.6 47.3 6.1 12.3 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.8 14.5 11.9 104.4 65.8 50.9 4.2 8.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 21.2 18.3 99.4 62.6 50.1 6.4 13.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.4 14.7 11.9 91.9 60.7 49.2 5.2 10.2 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.9 12.7 12.4 108.8 66.8 50.7 3.4 7.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.5 13.6 12.8 101.9 64.9 51.0 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.9 14.7 13.2 88.5 59.3 47.2 5.5 10.7 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.0 13.0 12.7 96.3 62.6 50.7 4.7 8.8 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 17.2 21.0 14.1 107.7 65.8 50.3 6.1 12.3 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.1 13.5 12.3 100.2 63.9 50.8 4.7 8.7 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.6 15.9 12.5 93.5 61.5 47.9 4.6 10.1 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 23.6 23.6 15.4 91.4 59.7 48.1 9.0 17.3 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.2 12.5 11.7 103.5 65.4 50.6 3.7 7.4 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------