***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.1 8.8 10.1 87.2 58.8 48.7 3.2 6.5 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.7 10.0 10.0 96.5 63.1 49.9 3.4 6.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.8 10.4 91.4 59.9 48.8 3.3 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.6 10.2 10.3 79.3 56.3 44.5 4.1 8.3 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.6 10.7 85.0 57.2 45.1 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.6 9.0 9.7 79.0 54.8 43.8 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.3 9.8 98.8 63.8 49.7 3.0 6.2 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.5 15.8 11.4 88.6 58.4 44.9 6.1 11.8 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.4 8.3 11.5 89.8 58.4 46.4 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.0 9.9 12.0 90.9 58.9 46.2 3.5 7.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.8 10.5 10.5 88.9 58.6 44.9 3.5 7.5 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.2 10.9 10.2 85.8 57.3 44.1 3.9 8.4 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 4.1 10.5 10.5 85.2 56.4 44.2 3.7 8.1 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.4 17.1 13.0 98.7 62.3 51.0 5.8 11.2 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.1 10.2 75.3 56.9 43.4 3.4 7.6 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.0 8.9 10.4 87.2 57.7 44.6 2.6 6.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.3 10.8 10.0 98.7 63.7 50.1 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.4 13.0 12.9 96.1 60.8 48.5 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.2 11.8 10.2 96.8 62.9 50.6 3.7 7.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.4 15.9 15.1 96.9 61.4 48.8 5.8 11.1 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.3 10.8 88.5 58.5 48.2 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.6 14.3 10.6 97.4 63.4 52.0 5.8 9.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.9 11.3 10.8 98.5 63.0 51.5 3.8 7.3 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.5 14.4 12.0 95.4 61.3 49.6 5.1 9.9 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.7 10.8 82.0 56.7 47.4 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.6 9.8 10.3 84.0 57.0 44.6 3.4 7.5 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.3 10.5 86.7 58.6 48.4 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.3 9.9 78.1 56.4 43.6 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.8 22.0 13.7 97.7 61.3 48.5 7.8 15.1 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.4 9.9 93.4 61.5 48.6 3.8 7.3 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------