***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 42.2 52.1 54.3 117.2 68.0 61.9 27.6 38.0 50.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 44.1 54.1 49.8 116.2 67.5 61.4 27.5 39.2 52.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 51.2 60.7 53.6 115.6 67.2 61.1 34.8 46.4 59.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 56.4 60.6 55.5 105.1 61.4 55.6 35.1 49.4 65.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 49.9 55.1 54.2 109.2 63.6 57.3 32.7 44.3 57.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 49.8 57.7 54.1 113.7 66.4 58.6 31.7 43.7 57.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 51.0 50.9 49.1 117.3 68.1 61.9 26.5 36.9 49.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 76.7 91.0 59.5 114.4 66.8 58.9 49.4 68.0 89.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 46.4 52.1 55.4 111.1 64.7 58.9 30.2 40.9 53.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 53.8 61.1 58.8 111.9 65.3 58.8 35.7 48.0 61.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 52.1 60.1 55.3 112.8 65.7 58.2 32.4 45.3 60.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 57.5 69.0 55.5 115.8 67.6 58.9 35.3 49.9 66.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 72.3 68.8 57.3 115.5 67.5 58.8 36.0 50.2 67.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 71.8 80.5 64.2 113.7 66.3 60.9 53.1 66.2 80.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 49.2 55.2 55.8 104.6 62.1 55.0 26.7 42.0 60.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 62.9 60.4 55.6 116.1 67.7 59.3 26.6 40.8 58.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 43.9 51.2 47.7 112.6 65.6 60.0 26.9 38.2 51.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 60.3 68.4 61.1 112.0 65.4 59.7 41.5 54.4 69.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 48.8 59.1 51.5 116.4 67.6 61.5 32.1 43.9 57.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 70.5 82.1 72.4 113.8 66.7 59.3 48.2 63.8 81.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 56.1 53.5 54.7 113.0 65.8 59.9 31.3 41.8 53.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 49.3 56.9 51.6 112.2 65.4 60.0 31.8 43.8 57.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 49.4 57.6 54.2 116.1 67.5 61.4 35.2 45.3 56.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 56.2 66.1 58.5 113.1 65.9 60.7 35.0 49.4 66.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 44.1 50.0 57.3 110.6 64.5 58.9 27.8 38.7 51.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 54.7 65.4 57.8 116.8 68.3 59.4 33.4 47.1 62.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 43.6 51.7 55.8 115.8 67.3 61.4 29.5 39.3 50.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 46.9 52.7 54.2 107.8 63.2 56.3 26.7 40.0 55.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 89.0 99.7 64.7 111.5 65.1 59.1 64.4 81.9 100.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 43.3 53.0 50.9 116.7 67.8 61.4 27.8 38.9 51.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------