***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 0.9 0.7 2.1 -2.3 21.9 25.7 1.8 3.1 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 0.5 0.5 2.3 -1.8 26.6 30.4 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 2.3 2.3 2.3 -2.0 23.6 27.2 3.1 4.4 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 -3.1 -2.9 0.1 -1.7 26.2 29.1 -2.2 -0.7 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -1.9 25.5 28.3 0.5 1.8 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 -0.8 -0.9 -1.3 -1.7 27.7 30.6 -0.3 1.2 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 0.3 0.2 2.1 -1.9 25.3 29.0 0.9 2.3 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -4.6 -4.4 -0.9 -1.6 29.7 32.4 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 0.3 0.4 0.6 -2.0 24.3 27.5 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 0.1 0.2 -0.4 -1.8 27.7 30.5 0.7 2.0 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -1.8 26.5 29.0 0.2 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 -1.3 -1.2 -0.5 -1.9 25.7 28.5 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 -2.0 24.3 27.3 -0.1 1.4 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 1.5 1.7 1.0 -1.7 28.0 30.7 2.0 3.0 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 -0.7 -0.4 0.8 -1.6 25.8 29.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 0.4 0.3 -0.7 -1.9 25.6 28.2 1.0 2.5 3.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 0.6 0.7 2.1 -1.6 28.5 32.2 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 -1.7 29.4 32.3 -0.5 0.6 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 0.7 0.7 2.4 -1.7 26.7 30.4 1.2 2.5 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -1.6 -3.7 -1.9 -1.3 35.1 37.9 -3.9 -2.2 -0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 0.3 0.4 1.6 -2.1 23.3 26.7 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 0.4 0.5 2.3 -1.5 29.6 33.2 0.8 1.9 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 0.9 0.9 2.2 -1.7 26.5 29.8 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 0.1 0.2 0.8 -1.8 26.8 29.7 0.7 1.7 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 0.4 0.5 1.1 -1.9 23.8 27.6 1.3 2.5 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -2.0 23.0 26.2 0.1 1.6 2.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 0.7 0.6 1.5 -2.2 22.2 26.1 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 -1.7 -1.6 0.2 -1.7 26.5 29.4 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 -1.6 31.5 34.3 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 0.7 0.6 2.3 -1.9 24.9 28.6 1.4 2.8 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------