***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 0.3 1.3 2.3 -0.9 38.0 41.9 0.8 2.4 4.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -0.6 0.8 2.4 -0.5 43.4 46.0 -0.3 1.5 3.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 4.2 2.2 2.1 -0.8 38.6 42.4 1.6 3.4 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -2.7 -0.2 -0.7 40.3 44.4 -3.5 -1.5 0.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 -0.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.8 38.5 42.8 -0.3 1.1 2.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 1.1 -0.6 -2.0 -1.0 37.0 42.2 -0.9 0.5 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -0.4 1.0 2.3 -0.5 43.5 46.0 -0.1 1.6 3.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -6.1 -4.9 -1.4 -0.7 40.7 44.4 -5.8 -3.9 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 0.1 0.9 0.4 -0.9 38.5 42.6 0.4 2.0 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -0.5 0.4 -0.7 -0.8 39.8 43.5 -0.2 1.3 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 -0.9 -0.1 -0.7 -1.0 36.5 41.2 -0.5 1.0 2.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -1.5 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 36.9 41.4 -1.1 0.3 1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 -1.1 -0.5 -1.4 -1.1 35.2 39.8 -0.7 0.8 2.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 2.6 1.2 0.8 -0.6 42.9 45.1 0.3 1.9 3.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.0 0.5 -0.6 41.0 45.2 0.4 1.7 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 -0.1 0.5 -1.2 -1.1 35.4 40.4 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 2.2 1.1 2.3 -0.3 46.0 48.0 -0.1 1.5 3.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 0.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 41.3 44.4 -1.7 -0.5 0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 -0.4 0.8 2.3 -0.5 42.5 45.3 -0.1 1.6 3.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -2.4 -3.8 -2.4 -0.5 44.1 46.9 -5.0 -3.1 -1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 -0.4 0.4 1.5 -0.9 37.8 42.0 -0.1 1.6 3.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -0.7 0.6 2.3 -0.4 44.8 47.1 -0.5 1.1 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 2.0 0.7 2.0 -0.6 41.9 44.7 -0.2 1.4 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 1.6 0.3 0.5 -0.7 40.8 43.7 -0.4 1.0 2.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 2.5 1.1 1.0 -0.7 40.7 44.3 0.4 1.8 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -0.5 0.0 -1.1 -1.1 35.3 39.6 -0.2 1.0 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 -0.7 0.7 1.6 -0.8 40.0 43.5 -0.2 1.9 3.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 -0.7 39.6 44.1 -1.1 0.2 1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -0.2 -1.8 -1.5 -0.6 42.7 45.3 -2.9 -1.0 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -0.4 1.0 2.4 -0.6 41.4 44.4 0.0 1.9 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------