***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 0.9 0.7 2.3 -1.7 18.4 23.1 1.7 2.7 3.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 0.4 0.2 2.2 -1.4 21.7 26.3 1.0 2.1 3.1 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 2.4 2.1 2.2 -1.6 19.4 24.0 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -2.7 -2.7 0.0 -1.1 27.1 31.2 -2.3 -1.1 0.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 0.2 0.0 0.0 -1.5 21.9 26.5 0.8 1.7 2.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 -0.4 -0.4 -1.4 -1.1 28.0 32.7 -0.1 0.9 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 0.4 0.2 2.1 -1.5 21.5 26.0 1.1 2.1 3.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -4.3 -4.3 -0.9 -1.1 28.9 33.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 1.0 0.7 0.5 -1.6 20.0 25.3 1.5 2.5 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 0.6 0.4 -0.4 -1.3 25.0 29.6 1.0 1.9 2.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -1.4 23.5 27.9 0.6 1.6 2.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 -0.7 -0.9 -0.5 -1.4 24.0 28.5 -0.3 0.7 1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -1.4 23.3 28.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 1.4 1.4 0.9 -1.3 24.5 28.7 1.9 2.7 3.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 0.6 0.5 0.9 -1.1 25.7 30.4 1.0 2.0 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 0.9 0.7 -0.7 -1.4 24.0 28.5 1.3 2.3 3.2 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 0.6 0.4 2.0 -1.3 23.1 27.7 1.1 2.0 2.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -1.3 26.1 30.7 -0.6 0.2 1.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 0.7 0.5 2.3 -1.4 22.2 26.7 1.2 2.2 3.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -2.0 -3.5 -1.8 -0.7 35.9 39.0 -3.8 -2.5 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 0.6 0.3 1.6 -1.6 19.0 24.0 1.2 2.2 3.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 0.3 0.2 2.2 -1.3 23.2 27.7 0.8 1.7 2.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 0.8 0.7 2.1 -1.3 23.2 27.5 1.2 2.1 2.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 0.3 0.2 0.6 -1.4 22.1 26.7 0.8 1.6 2.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 1.0 0.8 1.2 -1.4 21.7 26.3 1.5 2.4 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 0.0 -0.1 -0.8 -1.4 22.8 27.9 0.5 1.5 2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 0.6 0.4 1.6 -1.6 19.9 24.4 1.4 2.6 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 -0.7 -0.8 0.1 -1.2 26.0 30.5 -0.3 0.7 1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -1.5 -1.4 -1.1 -1.0 30.6 34.5 -1.2 -0.1 1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 0.6 0.5 2.3 -1.5 20.7 25.2 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------