***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 8.8 8.0 9.5 -4.1 12.1 13.2 11.1 13.0 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 8.9 8.0 9.4 -4.2 11.5 12.6 11.0 12.7 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 9.3 8.6 9.7 -4.1 13.1 14.2 11.5 13.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 3.8 4.5 8.7 -2.1 28.0 29.0 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 9.4 9.9 9.4 -2.8 22.4 23.6 11.3 13.1 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.7 11.1 9.2 -1.7 33.6 34.9 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 8.6 7.7 9.3 -4.2 11.5 12.6 10.8 12.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 6.4 4.0 9.5 -1.6 35.0 36.0 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 9.6 10.2 10.2 -2.9 21.4 22.5 11.7 13.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 10.4 10.7 9.7 -2.3 27.3 28.4 11.4 13.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 10.1 10.4 9.5 -2.7 24.2 25.4 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 10.7 11.0 9.5 -2.1 29.3 30.4 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 10.3 10.3 9.3 -2.9 23.6 24.9 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 9.8 9.7 9.5 -3.8 17.0 18.1 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 10.4 10.7 10.4 -1.7 29.8 31.0 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 10.6 10.8 9.3 -2.7 24.1 25.3 12.0 14.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 8.6 7.9 9.1 -4.1 11.9 13.2 10.6 12.2 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 10.2 10.4 9.6 -2.0 30.8 31.8 10.7 12.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 8.9 8.1 9.6 -4.2 12.1 13.2 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.2 10.2 9.4 -0.4 46.5 46.9 8.7 10.6 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 94 6 0 100 9.4 9.3 10.1 -3.4 17.1 18.3 11.5 13.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 9.0 8.2 9.3 -4.1 11.8 13.2 11.1 12.8 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 9.0 8.5 9.7 -4.0 13.7 14.8 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 83 17 0 100 10.2 10.2 9.8 -3.3 20.5 21.5 11.9 13.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 8.8 8.7 9.2 -3.3 17.7 19.0 10.6 12.4 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 11.3 11.6 9.3 -1.7 32.9 34.1 11.6 13.4 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 9.0 8.5 9.3 -3.9 14.0 15.2 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 10.3 10.6 9.5 -2.0 28.7 29.8 11.0 12.4 13.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.5 8.3 9.7 -1.3 37.3 38.2 7.8 9.7 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 8.6 7.7 9.5 -4.3 11.5 12.6 10.8 12.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------