***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 8.9 8.7 8.4 -1.9 24.9 30.9 9.7 11.6 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 8.0 8.0 8.5 -1.6 27.6 32.4 8.6 10.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 9.3 9.0 8.5 -1.8 26.0 31.7 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 3.2 3.5 6.5 -1.7 29.0 33.7 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 9.4 9.4 6.8 -1.8 27.8 33.2 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 8.6 8.6 5.8 -1.8 28.5 35.0 9.2 11.2 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 7.9 7.9 8.4 -1.7 27.1 31.8 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 2.5 2.9 6.5 -1.3 34.1 39.5 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 9.9 9.7 7.4 -1.8 27.5 33.4 10.4 12.3 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.4 9.5 6.9 -1.5 31.0 36.8 9.8 11.5 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 9.7 9.7 6.7 -1.7 28.9 34.5 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 9.5 9.6 6.8 -1.5 30.6 36.2 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 9.6 9.2 6.2 -1.9 26.8 33.2 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.8 9.7 7.8 -1.8 28.9 34.6 10.2 12.2 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 7.9 8.2 7.0 -1.4 31.7 36.1 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 9.9 9.8 6.4 -1.8 27.8 33.4 10.5 12.5 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 7.6 7.7 8.3 -1.6 28.1 32.7 8.2 9.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.4 8.7 6.8 -1.5 32.4 38.5 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 8.4 8.4 8.7 -1.7 27.4 32.5 9.1 11.0 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.8 7.8 5.6 -0.9 38.6 43.7 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 9.3 9.1 7.9 -1.9 26.0 32.0 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 8.2 8.2 8.4 -1.7 27.7 32.5 8.8 10.6 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 8.4 8.5 8.7 -1.8 27.4 32.7 9.1 11.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.1 10.1 7.7 -1.7 29.1 35.1 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 8.3 8.1 7.0 -1.8 26.4 32.1 8.9 10.8 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.3 9.2 6.4 -1.6 29.5 36.1 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 8.9 8.7 7.7 -1.8 25.4 31.4 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 8.3 8.5 6.7 -1.6 30.2 34.8 8.8 10.0 11.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.2 6.7 6.3 -1.3 34.4 40.5 6.6 8.4 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 8.2 8.1 8.6 -1.7 26.7 31.8 8.8 10.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------